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Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy

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Author Info
Kitov, Ivan
Kitov, Oleg
Dolinskaya, Svetlana

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Abstract

We present a comprehensive macroeconomic model for the U.S. There exist strict long-term relations between real GDP, price inflation, labor force participation, productivity, and unemployment. The evolution of real GDP depends only on exogenous demographic forces. Other macro-variables follow up the real GDP. The links between the variables have been valid during the last several decades. All relations were (successfully) tested for cointegration. Statistical estimates are also presented. The relationships allow a reliable prediction of the macroeconomic state at very large (more than 9 years) time horizons.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9808/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9808.

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Date of creation: 03 Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9808

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Related research
Keywords: US economy macroeconomic model real GDP inflation unemployment labor force productivity demography

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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This page was last updated on 2008-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.