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Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy

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Author Info
Kitov, Ivan
Kitov, Oleg
Dolinskaya, Svetlana

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Abstract

We present a comprehensive macroeconomic model for the U.S. There exist strict long-term relations between real GDP, price inflation, labor force participation, productivity, and unemployment. The evolution of real GDP depends only on exogenous demographic forces. Other macro-variables follow up the real GDP. The links between the variables have been valid during the last several decades. All relations were (successfully) tested for cointegration. Statistical estimates are also presented. The relationships allow a reliable prediction of the macroeconomic state at very large (more than 9 years) time horizons.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9808.

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Date of creation: 03 Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9808

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Related research
Keywords: US economy; macroeconomic model; real GDP; inflation; unemployment; labor force; productivity; demography;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test," MPRA Paper 2736, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "The driving force of labor force participation in developed countries," Working Papers 90, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test," MPRA Paper 2739, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "Real GDP per capita in developed countries," MPRA Paper 2738, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ivan O. Kitov, 2009. "Does economics need a scientific revolution?," Quantitative Finance Papers 0904.0729, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "The anti-Phillips curve," MPRA Paper 13641, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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