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Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy

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  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg
  • Dolinskaya, Svetlana

Abstract

We present a comprehensive macroeconomic model for the U.S. There exist strict long-term relations between real GDP, price inflation, labor force participation, productivity, and unemployment. The evolution of real GDP depends only on exogenous demographic forces. Other macro-variables follow up the real GDP. The links between the variables have been valid during the last several decades. All relations were (successfully) tested for cointegration. Statistical estimates are also presented. The relationships allow a reliable prediction of the macroeconomic state at very large (more than 9 years) time horizons.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9808.

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Date of creation: 03 Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9808

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Keywords: US economy; macroeconomic model; real GDP; inflation; unemployment; labor force; productivity; demography;

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References

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  1. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "The driving force of labor force participation in developed countries," Working Papers 90, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  2. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov & Svetlana Dolinskaya, 2007. "Inflation as a Function of Labor Force Change Rate: Cointegration Test for the USA," Mechonomics mechonomics3, Socionet.
  3. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Real GDP Per Capita in Developed Countries," Mechonomics mechonomics5, Socionet.
  4. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test," MPRA Paper 2739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test," Papers 0811.0896, arXiv.org.
  6. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2008. "Long-term linear trends in consumer price indices," MPRA Paper 6900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Modelling and predicting labor force productivity," MPRA Paper 15152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In The Central European Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
  3. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Does economics need a scientific revolution?," MPRA Paper 14476, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2010. "S&P 500 returns revisited," Papers 1004.0213, arXiv.org.
  5. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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