Employment, unemployment and real economic growth
AbstractWe have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real GDP per capita. All empirical relationships estimated in this study need a structural break somewhere between 1975 and 1995. Such breaks might be caused by revisions to monetary policy (e.g. inflation targeting) or/and changes in measurement units. Statistically, the link between measured and predicted rate of employment is characterized by the coefficient of determination from 0.84 (Australia) to 0.95 (Japan). The model residuals are likely to be associated with measurement errors.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32404.
Date of creation: 24 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
employment; unemployment; real GDP; modeling; Okun’s law;
Other versions of this item:
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2011-08-02 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-08-02 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dale T. Mortensen, 2005.
"More on Unemployment and Vacancy Fluctuations,"
2005 Meeting Papers
326, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Mortensen, Dale T. & Nagypál, Éva, 2005. "More on Unemployment and Vacancy Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 1765, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Dale T. Mortensen & Eva Nagypal, 2005. "More on Unemployment and Vacancy Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 11692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ivan O. KITOV, 2009. "The Evolution Of Real Gdp Per Capita In Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
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