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Modelling Structural Breaks in the US, UK and Japanese Unemployment Rates

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Author Info
Guglielmo Maria Caporale
Luis A. Gil-Alana ()
Abstract

In this paper we use a general procedure to detect structural breaks at unknown points in time which allows for different orders of integration and deterministic components in each subsample (see Gil-Alana, 2006). First, we extend it to the non-linear case, and show by means of Monte Carlo experiments that the procedure performs well in a non-linear environment. Second, we apply it to test for breaks in the unemployment rate in the US, the UK and Japan. Our results shed some light on the empirical relevance of alternative unemployment theories for these countries. Specifically, a structuralist interpretation appears more appropriate for the US and Japan, whilst a hysteresis model accounts better for the UK experience (and also for the Japanese one in the second subsample). We interpret these findings in terms of different labour market features.

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Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1734.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1734

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Related research
Keywords: unemployment structural breaks fractional integration

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  2. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A, 2002. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2), pages 95-103, April.
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  9. Tschernig, Rolf J.V. & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1992. "Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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