Modelling Structural Breaks in the US, UK and Japanese Unemployment Rates
AbstractIn this paper we use a general procedure to detect structural breaks at unknown points in time which allows for different orders of integration and deterministic components in each subsample (see Gil-Alana, 2006). First, we extend it to the non-linear case, and show by means of Monte Carlo experiments that the procedure performs well in a non-linear environment. Second, we apply it to test for breaks in the unemployment rate in the US, the UK and Japan. Our results shed some light on the empirical relevance of alternative unemployment theories for these countries. Specifically, a structuralist interpretation appears more appropriate for the US and Japan, whilst a hysteresis model accounts better for the UK experience (and also for the Japanese one in the second subsample). We interpret these findings in terms of different labour market features.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1734.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
unemployment; structural breaks; fractional integration;
Other versions of this item:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Modelling Structural Breaks In The Us, Uk And Japanese Unemployment Rates," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-10, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-08-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2006-08-05 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MAC-2006-08-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2006-08-05 (South East Asia)
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