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Long-run Unemployment and Macroeconomic Volatility

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Abstract

This paper develops a DSGE model with downward nominal wage rigidity, in which aggregate price and productivity dynamics are exogenously determined by independent Brownian motions with drift. As a result, the long-run expected value of unemployment depends positively on the drift coe¢ cients and negatively on the volatility coe¢ cients of both price and productivity growth processes. Model prescriptions are empirically tested by using a dataset including a wide sample of OECD countries from a period spanning from 1961 to 2011. Panel regressions with fixed effects and time dummies confirm the expected relation of inflation and productivity with unemployment at low frequencies. Long-run unemployment is negatively correlated with the levels of inflation and productivity growth, and positively with their volatilities.

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  • Stefano Fasani, 2017. "Long-run Unemployment and Macroeconomic Volatility," CEIS Research Paper 408, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 10 Jul 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:408
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    2. Andrea Attar & Catherine Casamatta & Arnold Chassagnon & Jean Paul Décamps, 2017. "On the Role of Menus in Sequential Contracting: a Multiple Lending Example," CEIS Research Paper 409, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 13 Jul 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run unemployment; Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity; Volatility; Inflationation targeting; DSGE model; Cross-country panel data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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