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Supply Shocks and the ‘Natural Rate of Interest': an Exploration

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Author Info
Chadha, J.S.
Nolan, C.

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Abstract

We develop two variants of an open economy general equilibrium model employing Blanchard-Yaari life overlapping generations, which are shown to capture a number of important aspects of the UK economic cycle. We analyse the equilibrium stochastic processes of the model’s endogenous variables in response to two primitive driving processes: total factor productivity and various measures of total factor productivity corrected for capacity utilisation over the cycle. We find, following Vickers’ (2000) suggestion, that the marginal product of capital is procyclical. Interestingly, we find that the difference between the procyclical real rate from the artificial economies and the observed real rate seems to play a role in explaining the UK inflation and output outcomes.

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0103.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0103

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Related research
Keywords: natural rate; productivity shocks; real rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. S Millard & Andrew Scott & M Sensier, 1997. "The Labour Market over the Business Cycle: Can Theory Fit the Facts?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0364, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  4. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Notes on Growth Accounting," NBER Working Papers 6654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Chadha, Jagjit S & Janssen, Norbert & Nolan, Charles, 2001. "Productivity and Preferences in a Small Open Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(0), pages 57-80, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Zvi Griliches, 1996. "The Discovery of the Residual: A Historical Note," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1324-1330, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2002. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 27, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Documents de Travail 115, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  4. Chadha, J. S. & Janssen, N. & Nolan, C.Author-X-Name-First: C., 2001. "Productivity and Preferences in a Small Open Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Chadha, J.S. & Nolan, C., 2003. "On the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0303, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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