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Supply Shocks and the ‘Natural Rate of Interest': an Exploration

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  • Chadha, J.S.
  • Nolan, C.

Abstract

We develop two variants of an open economy general equilibrium model employing Blanchard-Yaari life overlapping generations, which are shown to capture a number of important aspects of the UK economic cycle. We analyse the equilibrium stochastic processes of the model’s endogenous variables in response to two primitive driving processes: total factor productivity and various measures of total factor productivity corrected for capacity utilisation over the cycle. We find, following Vickers’ (2000) suggestion, that the marginal product of capital is procyclical. Interestingly, we find that the difference between the procyclical real rate from the artificial economies and the observed real rate seems to play a role in explaining the UK inflation and output outcomes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0103.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: Feb 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0103

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Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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Keywords: natural rate; productivity shocks; real rates;

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References

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  1. Millard, Stephen & Scott, Andrew & Sensier, Marianne, 1997. "The Labour Market over the Business Cycle: Can Theory Fit the Facts?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 70-92, Autumn.
  2. Chadha, Jagjit S & Janssen, Norbert & Nolan, Charles, 2001. "Productivity and Preferences in a Small Open Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(0), pages 57-80, Supplemen.
  3. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The S-Curve," NBER Working Papers 4242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007 Elsevier.
  5. Barro, Robert J, 1999. " Notes on Growth Accounting," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 119-37, June.
  6. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
  7. Zvi Griliches, 1995. "The Discovery of the Residual: A Historic Note," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1742, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  11. Zvi Griliches, 1995. "The Discovery of the Residual: An Historical Note," NBER Working Papers 5348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
  2. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
  3. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2002. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 27, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  4. Chadha, J. S. & Janssen, N. & Nolan, C.Author-X-Name-First: C., 2001. "Productivity and Preferences in a Small Open Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Chadha, J.S. & Nolan, C., 2003. "On the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0303, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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