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Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime

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Mark A. Hooker
Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of oil price changes on U.S. inflation in a Phillips curve framework, allowing for some of the asymmetries, nonlinearities, and structural breaks that have been found in the literature on the real effects of oil price shocks. It finds that since around 1980, oil price changes seem to affect inflation only through their direct share in a price index, with little or no pass-through into core measures, while before 1980, oil shocks contributed substantially to core inflation. This structural-break characterization appears robust to a variety of respecifications and to fit the data better than asymmetric and nonlinear oil price alternatives. Preliminary evidence suggests that a change in the reaction of monetary policy to oil shocks is part of the explanation.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-65.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-65

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Keywords: Petroleum industry and trade ; Inflation (Finance);

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 39-56.
  3. Bohi, Douglas R., 1991. "On the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 145-162, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James D. Hamilton, 1985. "Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 97-116.
  5. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56. [Downloadable!]
  6. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-77. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Oil and the macroeconomy revisited," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Knut Anton Mork, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 15(Special I), pages 15-38.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael LeBlanc & Menzie Chinn, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1021, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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