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Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime

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  • Mark A. Hooker
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    Abstract

    This paper estimates the effects of oil price changes on U.S. inflation in a Phillips curve framework, allowing for some of the asymmetries, nonlinearities, and structural breaks that have been found in the literature on the real effects of oil price shocks. It finds that since around 1980, oil price changes seem to affect inflation only through their direct share in a price index, with little or no pass-through into core measures, while before 1980, oil shocks contributed substantially to core inflation. This structural-break characterization appears robust to a variety of respecifications and to fit the data better than asymmetric and nonlinear oil price alternatives. Preliminary evidence suggests that a change in the reaction of monetary policy to oil shocks is part of the explanation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-65.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-65

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    Keywords: Petroleum industry and trade ; Inflation (Finance);

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    References

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    1. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
    2. Bohi, Douglas R., 1991. "On the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 145-162, June.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
    4. Knut Anton Mork, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 15-38.
    5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Oil and the macroeconomy revisited," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    10. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    12. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
    14. Michael L. Mussa & Paul A. Volcker & James Tobin, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 81-164 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
    16. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    17. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August.
    18. James D. Hamilton, 1985. "Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 97-116.
    19. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    20. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
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    Cited by:
    1. Amstad, Marlene & Hildebrand, Philipp, 2005. "The oil price and monetary policy – a new paradigm," MPRA Paper 15562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chang, Youngho & Wong, Joon Fong, 2003. "Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 1151-1165, September.
    3. Owen Humpage & Eduard Pelz, 2002. "Do energy-price shocks affect core-price measures?," Working Paper 0215, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Chuku, Chuku & Effiong, Ekpeno & Sam, Ndifreke, 2010. "Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 24434, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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