IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sgh/kaewps/2022071.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Ideas Really Getting Harder To Find? R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Growiec
  • Peter McAdam
  • Jakub Mućk

Abstract

We supplement the 'Idea Production Function' (IPF) with measures of R&D capital. We construct a time series of R&D capital stock in the US (1968-2019) based on cumulated R&D investment. We estimate the IPF with patent applications as R&D output, allowing for a flexible treatment of unit productivity of R&D capital and R&D labor. We find that the elasticity of substitution between R&D input factors is 0.7-0.8 and significantly below unity. This implies that R&D capital is an essential factor in producing ideas, complementary to R&D labor. We also identify a systematic positive trend in R&D labor productivity at about 1% per year on average and a cyclical trend in R&D capital productivity. Our results suggest that instead of 'ideas getting harder to find', there is an increasing scarcity of R&D capital needed to find them.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Growiec & Peter McAdam & Jakub Mućk, 2022. "Are Ideas Really Getting Harder To Find? R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function," KAE Working Papers 2022-071, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2022071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/Documents/WorkingPapersKAE/WPKAE_2022_071.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995. "General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    3. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Ezra Oberfield & Thomas Sampson, 2017. "The productivity slowdown and the declining labor share: a neoclassical exploration," CEP Discussion Papers dp1504, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 139-144, May.
    5. James B. Ang & Jakob B. Madsen, 2011. "Can Second-Generation Endogenous Growth Models Explain the Productivity Trends and Knowledge Production in the Asian Miracle Economies?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1360-1373, November.
    6. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    7. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number agra-1, March.
    8. Aum, Sangmin & Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim) & Shin, Yongseok, 2018. "Computerizing industries and routinizing jobs: Explaining trends in aggregate productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-21.
    9. John G. Fernald & J. Christina Wang, 2016. "Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 465-496, October.
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    11. Venturini, Francesco, 2012. "Looking into the black box of Schumpeterian growth theories: An empirical assessment of R&D races," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1530-1545.
    12. Jakub Growiec, 2019. "The Hardware–Software Model: A New Conceptual Framework of Production, R&D, and Growth with AI," Working Paper series 19-18, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    13. Jakob Madsen, 2008. "Semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models: testing the knowledge production function using international data," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-26, March.
    14. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 125-152, August.
    15. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    16. Olivier de La Grandville & Rainer Klump, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution: Two Theorems and Some Suggestions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 282-291, March.
    17. Ramey, Valerie A., 2020. "Secular stagnation or technological lull?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 767-777.
    18. Joonkyung Ha & Peter Howitt, 2007. "Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi-Endogenous Growth Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 733-774, June.
    19. Agrawal, Ajay & Gans, Joshua & Goldfarb, Avi (ed.), 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226613338, December.
    20. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "The Normalized Ces Production Function: Theory And Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 769-799, December.
    21. Bernstein, Jeffrey I. & Mamuneas, Theofanis P., 2006. "R&D depreciation, stocks, user costs and productivity growth for US R&D intensive industries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 70-98, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakub Growiec & Peter McAdam & Jakub dup Muck, 2023. "R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function," Research Working Paper RWP 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Jakub Growiec, 2019. "The Hardware–Software Model: A New Conceptual Framework of Production, R&D, and Growth with AI," Working Paper series 19-18, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Herzer Dierk, 2022. "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: A Critical Review of the Literature and New Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 1-55, April.
    4. Dinopoulos, Elias & Grieben, Wolf-Heimo & Şener, Fuat, 2023. "A Policy Conundrum: Schumpeterian Growth or Job Creation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Stadler, Manfred, 2015. "Innovation, industrial dynamics and economic growth," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 84, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    6. Growiec, Jakub, 2022. "Automation, Partial And Full," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(7), pages 1731-1755, October.
    7. Herzer, Dierk, 2022. "The impact of domestic and foreign R&D on TFP in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Venturini, Francesco, 2022. "Intelligent technologies and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 220-243.
    9. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    10. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    11. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Gray, Elie & Grimaud, André, 2016. "Using the Salop Circle to Study Scale Effects in Schumpeterian Growth Models: Why Inter-sectoral Knowledge Diffusion Matters," TSE Working Papers 16-676, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Finn Martensen, 2013. "Globalization, Unemployment, and Product Cycles: Short- and Long-Run Effects," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-16, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    14. A. Minniti & F. Venturini, 2014. "R&D Policy and Schumpeterian Growth: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers wp945, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Pedro Neves & Tiago Sequeira, 2017. "The Production of Knowledge: A Meta-Regression Analysis," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2017_03, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    16. Neves, Pedro Cunha & Sequeira, Tiago Neves, 2018. "Spillovers in the production of knowledge: A meta-regression analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 750-767.
    17. van Ark, Bart & de Vries, Klaas & Erumban, Abdul, 2021. "How To Not Miss A Productivity Revival Once Again," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 255, pages 9-24, February.
    18. Jakob B. Madsen & Minoo Farhadi, 2018. "International Technology Spillovers and Growth over the Past 142 Years: The Role of Genetic Proximity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(338), pages 329-359, April.
    19. Growiec, Jakub, 2022. "R&D capital: An engine of growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    20. Minniti, Antonio & Venturini, Francesco, 2017. "The long-run growth effects of R&D policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 316-326.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    R&D; Long-Run Growth; Technical Change; Estimation; CES.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2022071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dariusz Nojszewski (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/kawawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.