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External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007

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  • Blecker, Robert A.

Abstract

Summary This article finds that shocks to net financial inflows, world oil prices, the US growth rate, and the lagged real exchange rate explain most of the fluctuations in Mexico's annual growth since 1979. The article also estimates how the effects of these external constraints have changed since Mexico's liberalization policies of the late 1980s and the formation of NAFTA in 1994. Estimates of an investment function and other tests show that growth drives investment but not conversely, in the short run. Investment is driven mainly by oil prices and the accelerator effect; foreign direct investment has no significant impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Blecker, Robert A., 2009. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:37:y:2009:i:7:p:1274-1284
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2080-2090.
    2. Robert A. Blecker & Gerardo Esquivel, 2009. "NAFTA, Trade, and Development," Working Papers 2009-24, American University, Department of Economics.
    3. de Souza, João Paulo A. & Gómez-Ramírez, Leopoldo, 2018. "The paradox of Mexico's export boom without growth: A demand-side explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-113.
    4. Lipford Jody W. & Yandle Bruce, 2011. "NAFTA, Environmental Kuznets Curves, and Mexico's Progress," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Robert A. Blecker, 2015. "Integration, Productivity, and Inclusion in Mexico: A Macro Perspective," Working Papers 2015-06, American University, Department of Economics.
    6. Biru Paksha Paul, 2013. "Output Relationships in South Asia: Are Bangladesh and India Different from Neighbours?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 35-57, March.
    7. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2022. "Economic de-integration in North America and foreign direct investment from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2016. "Investment, asset market, and the relative unit labor cost in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 339-364, November.
    9. Blecker, Robert A. & Ibarra, Carlos A., 2013. "Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: The case of Mexico revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-47.
    10. Carlos A. Ibarra & Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Structural change, the real exchange rate and the balance of payments in Mexico, 1960–2012," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 507-539.
    11. Marquez, Marco, 2022. "Supply, demand and economic growth in Mexico in the period 1980–2016," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    12. Cheptiş Alexandra, 2022. "The impact of external shocks on economic growth: An empirical study based on the SVAR models," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 650-659, August.
    13. Robert A. Blecker & Gerardo Esquivel, 2010. "NAFTA, Trade and Development (Robert A. Blecker and Gerardo Esquivel)," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(04), pages 17-30, December.
    14. Erdoğan, Seyfettin & Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Gedikli, Ayfer, 2020. "Natural resource abundance, financial development and economic growth: An investigation on Next-11 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Rodríguez, Gabriel & Vassallo, Renato & Castillo B., Paul, 2023. "Effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Gabriel Rodríguez & Renato Vassallo, 2022. "Time Evolution of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Pacific Alliance Countries: Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-508, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    17. Christian Deblock & Michèle Rioux, 2010. "NAFTA – A Model Running Out of Breath?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(04), pages 9-16, December.
    18. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2015. "Investment and the real exchange rate's profitability channel in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 716-739, September.

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