IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anc/wpaper/300.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Decline of Agriculture. Evidence from Italian Regions in the Post-WWII Period

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto ESPOSTI

    (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

This article investigates the long-run decline of the agricultural sector during economic development and its contribution to this process. A two-sector model is proposed where the share of agriculture, relative prices and capital accumulation are simultaneously determined within the economy. Under this general equilibrium framework, short-run adjustments with respect to long-run equilibria are admitted through a set of alternative dynamic specifications. The model is then applied to the panel dataset of 20 Italian regions observed over the period 1951-2002 of dramatic economic development but still persistent disparities between Southern and Northern regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto ESPOSTI, 2007. "On the Decline of Agriculture. Evidence from Italian Regions in the Post-WWII Period," Working Papers 300, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:300
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdf/300.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Alejandro Onofri & Lilyan Fulginiti, 2008. "Public inputs and dynamic producer behavior: endogenous growth in U.S. agriculture," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 13-28, August.
    3. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    4. Anders Rygh Swensen, 2006. "Bootstrap Algorithms for Testing and Determining the Cointegration Rank in VAR Models -super-1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1699-1714, November.
    5. Esposti, Roberto & Pierani, Pierpaolo, 2000. "Modelling technical change in Italian agriculture: a latent variable approach," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 261-270, April.
    6. A. R. Pagan & J. C. Robertson, 1998. "Structural Models Of The Liquidity Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 202-217, May.
    7. Abbott, Philip & McCalla, Alex, 2002. "Agriculture in the macroeconomy: Theory and measurement," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 32, pages 1659-1686, Elsevier.
    8. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    9. Kym Anderson, 1987. "On Why Agriculture Declines with Economic Growth," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 1(3), pages 195-207, October.
    10. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    11. Cornwell, Christopher & Schmidt, Peter & Wyhowski, Donald, 1992. "Simultaneous equations and panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 151-181.
    12. Strickland, Allyn D & Weiss, Leonard W, 1976. "Advertising, Concentration, and Price-Cost Margins," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1109-1121, October.
    13. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter & Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2006. "The role of agriculture in development: implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," DSGD discussion papers 29, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. William D. Lastrapes & W. Douglas McMillin, 2004. "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect: The Role of Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 890-915, October.
    15. Gardner, Bruce L., 2003. "Leonard K. Elmhirst Lecture: Causes of Rural Economic Development," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa: Plenary Sessions 245919, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Richard Tiffin & Xavier Irz, 2006. "Is agriculture the engine of growth?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 79-89, July.
    17. Roberto ESPOSTI & Pierpaolo PIERANI, 2001. "Building the Knowledge Stock: Lags, Depreciation and Uncertainty in Agricultural R&D," Working Papers 145, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    18. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    19. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    20. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    21. Helal Ahammad, 2006. "A CGE Approach to Measuring the Sectoral Contribution to an Economy: An Application to Western Australian Agriculture," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Masayuki Doi (ed.), Computable General Equilibrium Approaches In Urban And Regional Policy Studies, chapter 11, pages 205-228, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Timmer, C. Peter, 2002. "Agriculture and economic development," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 29, pages 1487-1546, Elsevier.
    23. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    24. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    25. Xavier Irz & Terry Roe, 2005. "Seeds of growth? Agricultural productivity and the transitional dynamics of the Ramsey model," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 32(2), pages 143-165, June.
    26. Lucchetti, Riccardo, 2006. "Identification Of Covariance Structures," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 235-257, April.
    27. K. K. Gary Wong & Keith R. McLaren, 2005. "Specification and Estimation of Regular Inverse Demand Systems: A Distance Function Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 823-834.
    28. Hirofumi Uzawa, 1964. "Optimal Growth in a Two-Sector Model of Capital Accumulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 31(1), pages 1-24.
    29. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
    30. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    31. Jacob L. Weisdorf, 2006. "From domestic manufacture to Industrial Revolution: long-run growth and agricultural development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 264-287, April.
    32. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    33. Jamel Jouini, 2006. "Bootstrap Tests in Bivariate VAR Process with Single Structural Change : Power versus Corrected Size and Empirical Illustration," Working Papers halshs-00410759, HAL.
    34. Ling Sun & Lilyan E. Fulginiti & E. Wesley & F. Peterson, 2007. "Accounting for agricultural decline with economic growth in Taiwan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 36(2), pages 181-190, March.
    35. Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273, Elsevier.
    36. Aasness, Jorgen & Biorn, Erik & Skjerpen, Terje, 1993. "Engel Functions, Panel Data, and Latent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1395-1422, November.
    37. W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "Issues in the Measurement of Capital Services, Depreciation, Asset Price Changes, and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 479-556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    39. Mattias Lundberg & Lyn Squire, 2003. "The simultaneous evolution of growth and inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 326-344, April.
    40. Giovanna Vallanti, 2005. "Capital Mobility and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0684, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    41. Omtzigt Pieter & Fachin Stefano, 2002. "Bootstrapping and Bartlett corrections in the cointegrated VAR model," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0212, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    42. Roberto Esposti & Pierpaolo Pierani, 2006. "Price, private demand and optimal provision of public R&D investment: An application to Italian agriculture, 1960–1995," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 699-715, September.
    43. John Laitner, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(3), pages 545-561.
    44. Bruce L. Gardner, 2005. "Causes of rural economic development," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 21-41, January.
    45. V.E. Ball & J.C. Bureau & J.P. Butault & H.P. Witzke, 1993. "The stock of capital in European Community agriculture," Post-Print hal-01072680, HAL.
    46. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-452, May.
    47. Chambers,Robert G., 1988. "Applied Production Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521314275.
    48. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    49. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    50. Ulrich R. Kohli, 1978. "A Gross National Product Function and the Derived Demand for Imports and Supply of Exports," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-182, May.
    51. Hollis Chenery† & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), 1988. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    52. N. Gemmell & T. A. Lloyd & M. Mathew, 2000. "Agricultural Growth and Inter‐Sectoral Linkages in a Developing Economy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 353-370, September.
    53. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital in the New Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number corr05-1, March.
    54. Martin, Will & Warr, Peter G, 1993. "Explaining the Relative Decline of Agriculture: A Supply-Side Analysis for Indonesia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(3), pages 381-401, September.
    55. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    56. Foellmi, Reto & Zweimüller, Josef, 2008. "Structural change, Engel's consumption cycles and Kaldor's facts of economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1317-1328, October.
    57. Roberto Esposti, 2007. "Regional Growth and Policies in the European Union: Does the Common Agricultural Policy Have a Counter-Treatment Effect?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 116-134.
    58. Peter Timmer, C., 1988. "The agricultural transformation," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 275-331, Elsevier.
    59. Ornella Wanda Maietta, 2004. "Productivity Growth and Human Capital in Italian Agriculture," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, November.
    60. Ball, V Eldon, et al, 1993. "The Stock of Capital in European Community Agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 20(4), pages 437-450.
    61. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    62. Sharmistha Self & Richard Grabowski, 2007. "Economic development and the role of agricultural technology," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 36(3), pages 395-404, May.
    63. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
    64. Zellner,Arnold & Palm,Franz C. (ed.), 2004. "The Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis Approach," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521814072.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabio FIORILLO & Agnese SACCHI, 2010. "I Want to Free-ride. An Opportunistic View on Decentralization Versus Centralization Problem," Working Papers 346, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Elena AMBROSETTI & Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA, 2011. "The Remittances Behaviour of the Second Generation in Europe: Altruism or Self-Interest?," Working Papers 368, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Ugo FRATESI, 2010. "The National and International Effects;of Regional Policy Choices: Agglomeration Economies, Peripherality and Territorial Characteristics," Working Papers 344, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    4. Luca RICCETTI, 2010. "Minimum Tracking Error Volatility," Working Papers 340, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    5. Luca RICCETTI, 2011. "A Copula-GARCH Model for Macro Asset Allocation of a Portfolio with Commodities: an Out-of-Sample Analysis," Working Papers 355, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Esposti, Roberto, 2014. "On why and how agriculture declines," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 73-88.
    2. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    3. Hartwig, Jochen, 2012. "Testing the growth effects of structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 11-24.
    4. Vu, K.M., 2017. "Structural change and economic growth: Empirical evidence and policy insights from Asian economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 64-77.
    5. Afolabi Tunde Ahmed & Tsimisaraka Raymondo Sandra Marcelline & Sabi Couscous Mouhamadou Nazirou, 2021. "Empirical Study of the Impact of Governance on Economic Structural Change: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(8), pages 260-277.
    6. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. Hartwig, Jochen, 2010. "Is health capital formation good for long-term economic growth? - Panel Granger-causality evidence for OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 314-325, March.
    8. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    9. Rafiou Raphaël Bétila, 2021. "The impact of Ease of Doing Business on economic growth: a dynamic panel analysis for African countries," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-34, October.
    10. Celine Bonnefond, 2014. "Growth Dynamics And Conditional Convergence Among Chinese Provinces: A Panel Data Investigation Using System Gmm Estimator," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Fedderke, Johannes W., 2018. "Exploring unbalanced growth: Understanding the sectoral structure of the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-189.
    12. Andreas Dietrich, 2012. "Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 915-944, December.
    13. Jochen Hartwig, 2008. "Has Health Capital Formation Cured 'Baumol's Disease'? - Panel Granger Causality Evidence for OECD Countries," KOF Working papers 08-206, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. Elie Gray & André Grimaud & David Le Bris, 2018. "The Farmer, the Blue-collar, and the Monk: Understanding Economic Development through Saturations of Demands and Non-Homothetic Productivity Gains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6970, CESifo.
    15. Roberto ESPOSTI, 2008. "Why Should Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth Converge? Evidence from Italian Regions," Working Papers 319, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    16. Gray, Elie & Grimaud, André & Le Bris, David, 2018. "The Farmer, the Blue-collar, and the Monk: Understanding economic development through saturations of demands and non-homothetic productivity gains," TSE Working Papers 18-906, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    17. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2009. "Human capital and structural change: how do they interact with each others in growth," Post-Print hal-00798441, HAL.
    18. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    19. Francis Kemegue & Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere & Renee van Eyden, 2011. "What Drives Remittance Inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa? A Dynamic Panel Approach," Working Papers 201128, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Robert A Baade & Robert Baumann & Victor A Matheson, 2009. "Rejecting “Conventional” Wisdom: Estimating the Economic Impact of National Political Conventions," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 520-530.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; SVAR Models; Structural change; agriculture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maurizio Mariotti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deancit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.