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Structural Models Of The Liquidity Effect

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Author Info
A. R. Pagan
J. C. Robertson

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Abstract

In this paper we examine a number of recent studies that claim to have obtained a well-defined liquidity effect using structural VAR models based on broad measures of money. These studies can be distinguished in terms of the identifying restrictions, sample periods, and frequency of data used. We show that estimation of the structural coefficients of all these models can be achieved by instrumental-variable methods, where the instruments are predetermined variables and the estimated structural errors from other equations in the system. Overall, our judgment is that the evidence for a liquidity effect from these studies is much less certain than suggested in the original papers, primarily because of the poor quality of the instruments used in estimation and the sensitivity of the estimates to the sample period used. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 202-217
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:2:p:202-217

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  1. Adrian Pagan & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Don Bredin & Gerard O'Reilly, 2004. "An analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 49-58, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Stan Hurn & Ralf Becker, 2007. "Testing for nonlinearity in mean in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Working paper #8," NCER Working Paper Series 8, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Adrian R. Pagan & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008. "Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Discussion Papers 2008-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
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  5. David L. Haugh, 2005. "The Influence Of Consumer Confidence And Stock Prices On The United States Business Cycle, 1953-2003," CAMA Working Papers 2005-03, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387. [Downloadable!]
  7. Keuk-Soo Kim & W. Douglas McMillin, 2003. "Estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks: does lag structure matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1515-1526, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Robert W. Rich, 1999. "Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio," Staff Reports 71, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. W. Douglas McMillin & William D. Lastrapes, . "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alasdair Scott & George Kapetanios & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 462, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2003. "Structural Error Correction Models: Instrumental Variables Methods and an application to an exchange rate model," RCER Working Papers 502, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
  15. Mark Dwyer, 1998. "Impulse Response Priors for Discriminating Structural Vector Autoregressions," UCLA Economics Working Papers 780, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jón Daníelsson & Ryan Love, 2006. "Feedback trading

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    ," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 35-53. [Downloadable!]
  17. Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Weak Instruments: A Guide to the Literature," NCER Working Paper Series 13, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
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