Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics
AbstractHigh-dimensional regression problems which reveal dynamic behavior are typically analyzed by time propagation of a few number of factors. The inference on the whole system is then based on the low-dimensional time series analysis. Such highdimensional problems occur frequently in many different fields of science. In this paper we address the problem of inference when the factors and factor loadings are estimated by semiparametric methods. This more flexible modelling approach poses an important question - Is it justified, from inferential point of view, to base statistical inference on the estimated times series factors? We show that the difference of the inference based on the estimated time series and true unobserved time series is asymptotically negligible. Our results justify fitting vector autoregressive processes to the estimated factors, which allows one to study the dynamics of the whole high-dimensional system with a low-dimensional representation. We illustrate the theory with a simulation study. Also, we apply the method to a study of the dynamic behavior of implied volatilities and discuss other possible applications in finance and economics.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of the American Statistical Association.
Volume (Year): 104 (2009)
Issue (Month): 485 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jasa/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
Other versions of this item:
- Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Enno Mammen & Byeong U. Park, 2007. "Time Series Modelling with Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao & Zongwu Cai, 2003. "Adaptive varying-coefficient linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 57-80.
- Gregory Connor & Oliver Linton, 2006.
"Semiparametric Estimation of aCharacteristic-based Factor Model ofCommon Stock Returns,"
STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series
/2006/506, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Connor, Gregory & Linton, Oliver, 2007. "Semiparametric estimation of a characteristic-based factor model of common stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 694-717, December.
- Gregory Connor & Oliver Linton, 2006. "Semiparametric estimation of a characteristic-based factor model of common stock returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4424, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Rama Cont & Jose da Fonseca, 2002. "Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
- Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2003. "Implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Yang, Lijian & Park, Byeong U. & Xue, Lan & Hardle, Wolfgang, 2006.
"Estimation and Testing for Varying Coefficients in Additive Models With Marginal Integration,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1212-1227, September.
- Yang, Lijian & Härdle, Wolfgang & Park, Byeong U., 2002. "Estimation and testing for varying coefficients in additive models with marginal integration," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,75, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Lijian Yang & Byeong U. Park & Lan Xue & Wolfgang Härdle, 2005. "Estimation and Testing for Varying Coefficients in Additive Models with Marginal Integration," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-047, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Lars Hougaard Hansen & Bent Nielsen & Jens Perch Nielsen, 2004.
"Two sided analysis of variance with a latent time series,"
2004-W25, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Bent Nielsen & Lars Hougaard Hansen, 2004. "Two sided analysis of variance with a latent time series," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W25, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Bruggemann, Ralf & Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2006.
"Residual autocorrelation testing for vector error correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 579-604, October.
- Ralf BRUEGGEMANN & Helmut LUETKEPOHL & Pentti SAIKKONEN, 2004. "Residual Autocorrelation Testing for Vector Error Correction Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/08, European University Institute.
- Gregory Connor & Matthias Hagmann & Oliver Linton, 2012. "Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of the Fama–French Model and Extensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 713-754, 03.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
- Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Stefan Trück & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Convenience Yields for CO2 Emission Allowance Futures Contracts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-076, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.