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Convenience Yields for CO2 Emission Allowance Futures Contracts

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Author Info
Szymon Borak
Wolfgang Härdle
Stefan Trück
Rafal Weron

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Abstract

In January 2005 the EU-wide CO2 emissions trading system (EU-ETS) has formally entered into operation. Within the new trading system, the right to emit a particular amount of CO2 becomes a tradable commodity - called EU Allowances (EUAs) - and affected companies, traders and investors will face new strategic challenges. In this paper we investigate the nature of convenience yields for CO2 emission allowance futures. We conduct an empirical study on price behavior, volatility term structure and correlations in different CO2 EUA contracts. Our findings are that the market has changed from initial backwardation to contango with significant convenience yields in future contracts for the Kyoto commitment period starting in 2008. A high fraction of the yields can be explained by the price level and volatility of the spot prices. We conclude that the yields can be interpreted as market expectation on the price risk of CO2 emissions allowance prices and the uncertainty of EU allocation plans for the Kyoto period.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2006-076.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-076

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Related research
Keywords: CO2 Emission Trading; Commodity Markets; Spot and Futures Prices; Convenience Yields.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Other

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  10. Denis Belomestny & Markus Reiß, 2006. "Spectral calibration of exponential Lévy Models [1]," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-034, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bernd Görzig & Martin Gornig & Axel Werwatz, 2006. "Produktdiversifizierung: Haben die ostdeutschen Unternehmen den Anschluss an den Westen geschafft? – Eine vergleichende Analyse mit Mikrodaten der amtlichen Statistik," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Denis Belomestny & John Schoenmakers, 2006. "A jump-diffusion Libor model and its robust calibration," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/29, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Denis Belomestny & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "Spatial aggregation of local likelihood estimates with applications to classification," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Enzo Giacomini & Wolfgang Härdle & Ekaterina Ignatieva & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "Inhomogeneous Dependency Modelling with Time Varying Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-075, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Oliver Volckart, 2006. "The Influence of Information Costs on the Integration of Financial Markets: Northern Europe, 1350-1560," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dirk Temme & Henning Kreis & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2006. "PLS Path Modeling – A Software Review," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-084, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Emilie Alberola & Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme : Disentangling the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-12, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jenny Kragl & Julia Schmid, 2006. "Relational Contracts and Inequity Aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-085, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wilfried Rickels & Vicki Duscha & Andreas Keller & Sonja Peterson, 2007. "The determinants of allowance prices in the European Emissions Trading Scheme - Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008?," Kiel Working Papers 1387, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tim Grebe & Julia Schmid & Andreas Stiehler, 2006. "Do Individuals Recognize Cascade Behavior of Others? - An Experimental Study -," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-079, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Dirk Temme & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2006. "Formative Measurement Models in Covariance Structure Analysis: Specification and Identification," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-083, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ying Chen & Wolfgang Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "GHICA - Risk Analysis with GH Distributions and Independent Components," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-078, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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