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Pricing commodity futures and determining risk premia in a three factor model with stochastic volatility: the case of Brent crude oil

Author

Listed:
  • Jilong Chen

    (Zhejiang Gongshang University)

  • Christian Ewald

    (University of Glasgow
    Inland University of Applied Sciences)

  • Ruolan Ouyang

    (Jinan University)

  • Sjur Westgaard

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Xiaoxia Xiao

    (Jinan University)

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a three factor model to price commodity futures contracts. This model allows both the spot price volatility and convenience yield to be stochastic, nevertheless futures prices can be obtained conveniently in closed form. Further, we use Brent crude oil futures prices to calibrate the model using the extended Kalman filter. In comparison to the benchmark model for commodity futures pricing, the Schwartz two-factor model, our three factor model shows a superior fit for contracts that have longer maturities. We further assess risk premia in Brent crude oil through the two models and observe that the Schwartz two-factor model over-predicts risk premia in comparison to the new model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jilong Chen & Christian Ewald & Ruolan Ouyang & Sjur Westgaard & Xiaoxia Xiao, 2022. "Pricing commodity futures and determining risk premia in a three factor model with stochastic volatility: the case of Brent crude oil," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 29-46, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:313:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04198-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04198-7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity futures; Stochastic volatility; Multi-factor models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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