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Explaining the convenience yield in the WTI crude oil market using realized volatility and jumps

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  • Benoît Sévi

Abstract

In this paper, we first provide empirical evidence of the existence of intraday jumps in the crude oil price series. We then show that these jumps, in conjunction with realized volatility measures, are important in modeling the convenience yield over the 2001-2010 period. Our empirical results indicate that lagged jumpmean only explains around 16% of the weekly convenience yield. Our best specification, including variation in inventories, eight-week realized variance and the 250-day jumpmean is able to explain around 61% of the weekly convenience yield. Importantly, our results are not driven by the simultaneous determination of the various variables at work as we only use lagged variables in all regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Explaining the convenience yield in the WTI crude oil market using realized volatility and jumps," Working Papers 2014-602, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-602
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    2. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2019. "Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 1011-1023.
    3. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Jumps in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 55-70.
    4. Akihiro Omura & Neda Todorova, 2019. "The quantile dependence of commodity futures markets on news sentiment," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 818-837, July.
    5. Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tingqiu, Cao, 2020. "Analyzing volatility spillovers between oil market and Asian stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Omura, Akihiro & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard & Todorova, Neda, 2018. "Convenience yield, realised volatility and jumps: Evidence from non-ferrous metals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 496-510.
    7. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Lakshmi, Geeta, 2015. "Market risk of BRIC Eurobonds in the financial crisis period," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 295-310.
    8. Da Fonseca, José & Ignatieva, Katja & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2016. "Explaining credit default swap spreads by means of realized jumps and volatilities in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 215-228.
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    10. Zhang, Hanxiong & Auer, Benjamin R. & Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2018. "Performance ranking (dis)similarities in commodity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 115-137.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    convenience yield; realized volatility; jump; inventory.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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