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Intraday jumps and US macroeconomic news announcements

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  • Evans, Kevin P.
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    Abstract

    This paper applies recent non-parametric intraday jump detection procedures to investigate the presence and importance of intraday jumps in US futures markets. More importantly, the paper investigates the extent to which statistically significant intraday jumps are associated with US macroeconomic news announcements. Jumps are prevalent, large and contribute heavily to total daily price variation. Approximately one third of jumps correspond to US macroeconomic news announcements, with pure announcement effects causing large increases in the absolute sizes of jumps and the informational surprise of the announcement explaining large proportions of the jumps. The statistical and economic significance of news-related jumps is confirmed by results that show higher volatility persistence, predictability of lower frequency returns, larger effects on microstructure variables, jump clustering and co-jumps from these jumps versus non-news-related jumps, although there are some interesting variations across asset classes.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 10 (October)
    Pages: 2511-2527

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:10:p:2511-2527

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Jumps Realised volatility Bipower variation Macro news announcements;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Winkelmann, Lars & Bibinger, Markus & Linzert, Tobias, 2013. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79721, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Martin L. Scholtus & Dick van Dijk & Bart Frijns, 2012. "Speed, Algorithmic Trading, and Market Quality around Macroeconomic News Announcements," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-121/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Scholtus, Martin & van Dijk, Dick & Frijns, Bart, 2014. "Speed, algorithmic trading, and market quality around macroeconomic news announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 89-105.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Henry, Olan T & Hvodzdyk, Lyudmyla, 2013. "The impact of jumps and thin trading on realized hedge ratios," Working Papers 2013-02, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 28 Mar 2013.
    5. Gilder, Dudley & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J., 2014. "Cojumps in stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 443-459.
    6. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Do jumps help in forecasting the density of returns?," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6805, Paris Dauphine University.
    7. Löffler, Gunter & Posch, Peter N, 2013. "Wall Street’s bailout bet: Market reactions to house price releases in the presence of bailout expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5147-5158.

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