Time Series Modelling with Semiparametric Factor Dynamics
High-dimensional regression problems which reveal dynamic behavior are typically analyzed by time propagation of a few number of factors. The inference on the whole system is then based on the low-dimensional time series analysis. Such highdimensional problems occur frequently in many different fields of science. In this paper we address the problem of inference when the factors and factor loadings are estimated by semiparametric methods. This more flexible modelling approach poses an important question - Is it justified, from inferential point of view, to base statistical inference on the estimated times series factors? We show that the difference of the inference based on the estimated time series and true unobserved time series is asymptotically negligible. Our results justify fitting vector autoregressive processes to the estimated factors, which allows one to study the dynamics of the whole high-dimensional system with a low-dimensional representation. We illustrate the theory with a simulation study. Also, we apply the method to a study of the dynamic behavior of implied volatilities and discuss other possible applications in finance and economics.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Stefan Trück & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Convenience Yields for CO2 Emission Allowance Futures Contracts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-076, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2003. "Implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Bent Nielsen & Lars Hougaard Hansen, 2004.
"Two sided analysis of variance with a latent time series,"
Economics Series Working Papers
2004-W25, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Lars Hougaard Hansen & Bent Nielsen & Jens Perch Nielsen, 2004. "Two sided analysis of variance with a latent time series," Economics Papers 2004-W25, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Gregory Connor & Oliver Linton, 2006.
"Semiparametric estimation of a characteristic-based factor model of common stock returns,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
4424, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Connor, Gregory & Linton, Oliver, 2007. "Semiparametric estimation of a characteristic-based factor model of common stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 694-717, December.
- Gregory Connor & Oliver Linton, 2006. "Semiparametric Estimation of aCharacteristic-based Factor Model ofCommon Stock Returns," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2006/506, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Lijian Yang & Byeong U. Park & Lan Xue & Wolfgang Härdle, 2005.
"Estimation and Testing for Varying Coefficients in Additive Models with Marginal Integration,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2005-047, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Yang, Lijian & Park, Byeong U. & Xue, Lan & Hardle, Wolfgang, 2006. "Estimation and Testing for Varying Coefficients in Additive Models With Marginal Integration," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1212-1227, September.
- Yang, Lijian & Härdle, Wolfgang & Park, Byeong U., 2002. "Estimation and testing for varying coefficients in additive models with marginal integration," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,75, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Ralf BRUEGGEMANN & Helmut LUETKEPOHL & Pentti SAIKKONEN, 2004.
"Residual Autocorrelation Testing for Vector Error Correction Models,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2004/08, European University Institute.
- Bruggemann, Ralf & Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2006. "Residual autocorrelation testing for vector error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 579-604, October.
- Gregory Connor & Matthias Hagmann & Oliver Linton, 2012. "Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of the Fama–French Model and Extensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 713-754, 03.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
- Rama Cont & Jose da Fonseca, 2002. "Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao & Zongwu Cai, 2003. "Adaptive varying-coefficient linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 57-80.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.