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Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation

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Author Info
Halunga, Andreea G.
Osborn, Denise R.
Sensier, Marianne

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Abstract

Employing the modified tests of Harvey, Leybourne and Taylor [Harvey, D.I., Leybourne, S.J. and Taylor, A.M.R., 2006. Modified tests for a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 134, 441-469.] for a single change in persistence and repartitioning the sample when a break is found, this paper shows that US and UK inflation changes from I(0) to I(1) in the early 1970s, with a subsequent reversion to I(0) behaviour, compatible with modern macroeconomic theories, in the early 1980s.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 102 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 30-32
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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:102:y:2009:i:1:p:30-32

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation Structural change;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2006. "Has the inflation process changed?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 311-352, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Wojciech W. Charemza & Daniela Hristova & Peter Burridge, 2005. "Is inflation stationary?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 901-903, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Modelling UK Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 46, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Paper Series 334, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
  9. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Testing for a Change in Persistence in the Presence of a Volatility Shift," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 761-781, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
  11. Phillips, Peter C. B. & Jin, Sainan, 2002. "The KPSS test with seasonal dummies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 239-243, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana, 2009. "Nonlinear Inflationary Persistence and Growth: Theory and Empirical Comparative Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 5-22, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 121, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Structural Breaks in the International Transmission of Inflation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 119, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-12.

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