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Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation

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Author Info

  • Halunga, Andreea G.
  • Osborn, Denise R.
  • Sensier, Marianne

Abstract

Employing the modified tests of Harvey, Leybourne and Taylor [Harvey, D.I., Leybourne, S.J. and Taylor, A.M.R., 2006. Modified tests for a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 134, 441-469.] for a single change in persistence and repartitioning the sample when a break is found, this paper shows that US and UK inflation changes from I(0) to I(1) in the early 1970s, with a subsequent reversion to I(0) behaviour, compatible with modern macroeconomic theories, in the early 1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 102 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 30-32

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:102:y:2009:i:1:p:30-32

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Related research

Keywords: Inflation Structural change;

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew Levin & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 298, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Stephen Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2005. "Has the inflation process changed?," BIS Working Papers 185, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  5. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
  6. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05.
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  8. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Testing for a Change in Persistence in the Presence of a Volatility Shift," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 761-781, December.
  9. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
  10. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
  11. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2010. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 232, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  2. Andrew Phiri, 2012. "Threshold effects and inflation persistence in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 247-269, August.
  3. Luis F. Martins & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "Testing for Persistence Change in Fractionally Integrated Models: An Application to World Inflation Rates," Working Papers w201030, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2011. "Detecting changes from short to long memory," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 847-870, November.
  5. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana, 2009. "Nonlinear Inflationary Persistence and Growth: Theory and Empirical Comparative Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 5-22, June.
  6. Çatık, A. Nazif & Martin, Christopher, 2012. "Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1440-1449.

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