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An Inflated Ordered Probit Model of Monetary Policy: Evidence from MPC Voting Data

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  • Brooks, Robert
  • Harris, Mark
  • Spencer, Christopher

Abstract

Even in the face of a continuously changing economic environment, interest rates often remain unadjusted for long periods. When rates are moved, the norm is for a series of small unidirectional discrete basis-point changes. To explain these phenomena we suggest a two-equation system combining a “long-run” equation explaining a binary decision to change or not change the interest-rate, and a “shortrun” one based on a simple monetary policy rule. We account for unobserved heterogeneity in both equations, applying the model to unique unit-record level data on the voting preferences of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8509.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8509

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Keywords: Interest rates; voting; discrete data; ordered models; inflated outcomes; monetary policy committee;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Roman Horváth & Kateřina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2012. "Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy," Working Papers 316, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  2. William H. Greene & David A. Hensher, 2008. "Modeling Ordered Choices: A Primer and Recent Developments," Working Papers 08-26, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Wojciech Charemza & Daniel Ladley, 2012. "MPC Voting, Forecasting and Inflation," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/23, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Jan 2013.

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