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Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy

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  • Roman Horváth

    ()
    (Charles University, Prague and IOS, Regensburg)

  • Kateřina Šmídková
  • Jan Zápal

Abstract

We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy using data on five inflation targeting countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom). We find that in all countries the voting records, namely the difference between the average voted-for and actually implemented policy rate, signal future monetary policy, making a case for publishing the records. This result holds even if we control for the financial market expectations; include the voting records from the period covering the current global financial crisis and examine the differences in timing and style of the voting record announcements.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies) in its series Working Papers with number 316.

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Length: 19
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:316

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Keywords: monetary policy; voting record; transparency; collective decision-making;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Mahieu, Ronald J & Raes, Louis, 2013. "Estimating the preferences of central bankers: an analysis of four voting records," CEPR Discussion Papers 9602, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Roman Horváth & Kateøina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2011. "Central Banks’ Voting Records and Future Policy," Working Papers IES 2011/37, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2011.
  3. Roman Horváth & Kateøina Šmídková & Jan Zápal & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Dissent Voting Behavior of Central Bankers: What Do We Really Know?," Working Papers IES 2012/05, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
  4. Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2012. "Is the U.S. Fed Voting Record Informative about Future Monetary Policy?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 478-484, December.
  5. A. Jung, 2013. "Policymakers’ Interest Rate Preferences: Recent Evidence for Three Monetary Policy Committees," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 150-197, September.

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