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Central Bank Communication and Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech National Bank

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  • Roman HORVATH

    ()
    (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

  • Pavel KARAS

    (AKCENTA LOGISTIC, a.s., Czech Republic)

Abstract

We examine how written and oral central bank communications affect the level and volatility of interest rates. We use detailed daily data on the Czech central bank’s communication in 2007–2012. We find that financial markets respond to central bank communication. Short-term interest rates rise if the bank communicates that economic conditions are good. The results suggest that written communication, but not oral communication, decreases the volatility of both short-term and long-term interest rates. The timing of communication has a key role, as comments made closer to the monetary policy meeting have a bigger calming effect on the markets. All in all, our results point to the importance of well-designed communication for reducing noise in the financial markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 63 (2013)
Issue (Month): 5 (November)
Pages: 454-464

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:63:y:2013:i:5:p:454-464

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Keywords: central bank communication; interest rates;

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  1. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
  2. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.
  3. Böhm, Jiří & Král, Petr & Saxa, Branislav, 2012. "The Czech National Bank's monetary policy in the media," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 341-357.
  4. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2009. "Central Bank Transparency: Causes, Consequences and Updates," NBER Working Papers 14791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Petra M. Geraats, 2009. "Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 235-268, 08.
  6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "The timing of central bank communication," Working Paper Series 0565, European Central Bank.
  7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Purdah-On the Rationale for Central Bank Silence around Policy Meetings," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 517-528, 03.
  8. Jan Filáček & Branislav Saxa, 2012. "Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 244-264, October.
  9. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
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