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Insiders versus Outsiders in Monetary Policy-Making

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Author Info

  • Besley, Timothy

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Meads, Neil

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Surico, Paolo

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper looks at the voting patterns of internal and external members of the MPC to investigate how far there are differences between insiders and outsiders. We make three contributions. First, we assess the extent to which the Bank of England internally generated forecasts explain the MPC members' voting decisions. This is important as generating forecasts on a quarterly basis is a key part of the process used by the Bank of England. The forecast for inflation is made public in the Inflation Report while the output gap forecast is not. Second, we use a random coefficient method of estimation in which the parameters of the interest rate rule are allowed, but not required, to be different across members. Third, we find evidence of some heterogeneity in the intercept, a measure of experience on the MPC and the interest rate smoothing parameter, but no significant differences in the members' reaction to the forecasts of inflation and the output gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 20.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0020

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Keywords: Monetary Policy; Voting Patterns;

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References

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  1. RIBONI, Alessandro & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2007. "Preference Heterogeneity in Monetary Policy Committees," Cahiers de recherche 2007-05, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  3. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2008. "Delayed doves: MPC voting behaviour of externals," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19611, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Christopher Spencer, 2006. "The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0306, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  5. Simon Hix & Bjorn Hoyland & Nick Vivyan, 2007. "From doves to hawks: a spatial analysis of voting in the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, 1997-2007," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25199, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Stephen Hansen & Michael F. McMahon, 2008. "Delayed Doves: MPC Voting Behaviour of Externals," CEP Discussion Papers dp0862, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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