Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The behaviour of the MPC: Gradualism, inaction and individual voting patterns

Contents:

Author Info

  • Groth, Charlotta

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Wheeler, Tracy

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

We evaluate the degree of gradualism and inaction in UK monetary policy over the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) period (1997-2007) at the quarterly and the monthly frequency. After accounting for misspecification in standard Taylor rules, we find little evidence for gradualism. A measure of optimal policy is calculated. Comparing this with actual policy suggests that there is less inaction in monetary policy decisions than previous work suggested for the period prior to the formation of the MPC. In an analysis of the MPC's monthly voting decisions, we find that the activity rate, defined as the probability that the MPC vote to change interest rates in a given month, has fallen over time. This reflects the increased stability of inflation and output growth, rather than changes in the degree of gradualism and/or inaction. There is some evidence for inaction at the monthly frequency however, demonstrated by the fact that the MPC is more active in the forecast month than in the non-forecast month. The MPC also tends to wait longer before reversing the direction of interest rate changes than continuing them. This difference appears not to be driven by gradualism, and so provides further evidence for inaction at the monthly frequency. A panel data analysis suggests that the MPC as a whole is equally active as its individual members, so inaction appears not to be driven by the use of a committee to set monetary policy. There is no evidence that activity rates fall with the length of time that a member has served on the committee, suggesting that learning about the transmission mechanism has no impact on the tendency for gradualism and inaction.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/externalmpcpapers/extmpcpaper0021.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/externalmpcpapers/extmpcpaper0021.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/externalmpcpapers/extmpcpaper0021.pdf). If this is indeed the case, please notify (William Naughton)
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 21.

as in new window
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0021

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (020) 7601 4444
Fax: +44 (020) 7601 5460
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/externalmpcpapers/index.htm
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Taylor Rules; Voting Patterns;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Timothy Besley & Neil Meads & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Insiders versus outsiders in monetary policymaking," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33743, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Jan Marc Berk & Beata Bierut & Ellen Meade, 2010. "The Dynamic Voting Patterns of the Bank of England's MPC," DNB Working Papers 261, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (William Naughton) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask William Naughton to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.