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Rational Partisan Theory, Uncertainty, And Spatial Voting: Evidence For The Bank Of England'S Mpc

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  • ARNAB BHATTACHARJEE
  • SEAN HOLLY

Abstract

The transparency and openness of the monetary policy-making process at the Bank of England has provided very detailed information on both the decisions of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the information on which they are based. In this paper, we consider this decision-making process in the context of a model in which inflation forecast targeting is used, but there is heterogeneity among the members of the committee. We find that rational partisan theory can explain spatial voting behavior under forecast uncertainty about the output gap. Internally generated forecasts of output and market-generated expectations of medium-term inflation provide the best description of discrete changes in interest rates, in combination with uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. There is also a role for developments in asset, housing and labor markets. Further, spatial voting patterns clearly differentiate between internally and externally apzpointed members of the MPC. The results have important implications for committee design and the conduct of monetary policy. Copyright 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Economics & Politics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (07)
Pages: 151-179

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:22:y:2010:i:2:p:151-179

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Cited by:
  1. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Mahieu, Ronald J & Raes, Louis, 2013. "Inferring hawks and doves from voting records," CEPR Discussion Papers 9418, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Roman Horváth & Kateøina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2011. "Central Banks’ Voting Records and Future Policy," Working Papers IES 2011/37, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2011.
  3. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2010. "Structural Interactions in Spatial Panels," CDMA Working Paper Series 201003, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  4. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, February.
  5. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2010. "Understanding Interactions in Social Networks and Committees," CDMA Working Paper Series 201004, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  6. Roman Horváth & Kateøina Šmídková & Jan Zápal & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Dissent Voting Behavior of Central Bankers: What Do We Really Know?," Working Papers IES 2012/05, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.

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