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Modelling Tobacco Consumption with a Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit Model

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  • Mark N. Harris

    ()

  • Xueyan Zhao

    ()

Abstract

Data for discrete ordered random variables are often characterised by "excessive" zero observations. Traditional ordered probit models have limited capacity in explaining the preponderance of zero observations, especially when the zeros may relate to two distinct situations of non-participation and infrequent participation (or consumption), for example. We propose a zero-inflated ordered probit (ZIOP) model using a double-hurdle combination of a split (probit) model and an ordered probit model which, potentially, relate to different sets of covariates. Monte Carlo results suggest that the new model performs well. Finally, the model is applied to a consumer choice problem of tobacco consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 14/04.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2004-14

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Keywords: Ordered outcomes; discrete data; drug consumption; zero-inflated responses.;

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  1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1986. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 41, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  2. Chaloupka, Frank, 1991. "Rational Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 722-42, August.
  3. Winfried Pohlmeier & Volker Ulrich, 1995. "An Econometric Model of the Two-Part Decisionmaking Process in the Demand for Health Care," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(2), pages 339-361.
  4. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  5. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
  6. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios, 2002. "Putting Out the Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce the Onset of Youth Smoking?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 144-169, February.
  8. J. Williams, 2004. "The effects of price and policy on marijuana use: what can be learned from the Australian experience?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 123-137.
  9. Harris, Mark N & Loundes, Joanne & Webster, Elizabeth, 2002. "Determinants of Household Saving in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(241), pages 207-23, June.
  10. Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
  11. Cameron, Lisa & Williams, Jenny, 2001. "Cannabis, Alcohol and Cigarettes: Substitutes or Complements?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(236), pages 19-34, March.
  12. Jeffrey E. Harris & Sandra W. Chan, 1999. "The continuum-of-addiction: cigarette smoking in relation to price among Americans aged 15-29," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-86.
  13. Lisa Farrell & Tim R. L. Fry & Mark N. Harris, 2003. "“A Pack A Day For Twenty Years”:Smoking And Cigarette Pack Sizes," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 887, The University of Melbourne.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis Cabral & Ben Polak, 2007. "Dominant Firms, Imitation, and Incentives to Innovate," Working Papers 07-6, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Brooks, Robert & Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2007. "An Inflated Ordered Probit Model of Monetary Policy: Evidence from MPC Voting Data," MPRA Paper 8509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kenneth W. Clements & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "Economic Aspects of Marijuana," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-28, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  4. William H. Greene & David A. Hensher, 2008. "Modeling Ordered Choices: A Primer and Recent Developments," Working Papers 08-26, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. Abdulbaki Bilgic & Wojciech Florkowski & Cuma Akbay, 2010. "Demand for cigarettes in Turkey: an application of count data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 733-765, December.
  6. Harris, Mark N. & Zhao, Xueyan, 2007. "A zero-inflated ordered probit model, with an application to modelling tobacco consumption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1073-1099, December.

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