MPC Voting, Forecasting and Inflation
AbstractThis paper considers the effectiveness of monetary policy committee voting when the inflation forecast signals, upon which decisions are based, may be subject to manipulation. Using a discrete time intertemporal model, we examine the distortions resulting from such manipulation under a three-way voting system, similar to that used by the Bank of Sweden. We find that voting itself creates persistence in inflation. Whilst altering the forecast signal, even if well intentioned, results in a diminished probability of achieving the inflation target. However, if committee members ‘learn’ in a Bayesian manner, this problem is mitigated.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 12/23.
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision: Jan 2013
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK
Phone: +44 (0)116 252 2887
Fax: +44 (0)116 252 2908
Web page: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-10-27 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CDM-2012-10-27 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-FOR-2012-10-27 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-10-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-10-27 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-POL-2012-10-27 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2007.
"Central bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimisitic,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-202789, Tilburg University.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2007. "Central Bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimistic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 30-50, March.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2005. "Central Bank Forecasts and Disclosure Policy: Why it Pays to be Optimistic," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-143036, Tilburg University.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2005. "Central Bank Forecasts and Disclosure Policy: Why it Pays to be Optimistic," CEPR Discussion Papers 4854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Timothy Besley & Neil Meads & Paolo Surico, 2008.
"Insiders versus outsiders in monetary policymaking,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
33743, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Timothy Besley & Neil Meads & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Insiders versus Outsiders in Monetary Policymaking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 218-23, May.
- Besley, Timothy & Meads, Neil & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "Insiders versus Outsiders in Monetary Policy-Making," Discussion Papers 20, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Anke Weber, 2010.
"Communication, Decision making, and the Optimal Degree of Transparency of Monetary Policy Committees,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(3), pages 1-49, September.
- Weber, Anke, 2008. "Communication, decision-making and the optimal degree of transparency of monetary policy committees," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Aleksander Berentsen & Gabriele Camera & Christopher Waller, 2005.
"Money, Credit and Banking,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1617, CESifo Group Munich.
- Aleksander Berentsen & Gabriele Camera & Christopher Waller, . "Money, Credit and Banking," IEW - Working Papers 219, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Aleksander Berentsen & Gabriele Camera, 2004. "Money, Credit, and Banking," 2004 Meeting Papers 473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999.
"Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
- Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Monetary policy committees and interest rate setting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 487-507, February.
- Brooks, Robert & Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2007. "An Inflated Ordered Probit Model of Monetary Policy: Evidence from MPC Voting Data," MPRA Paper 8509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jan Marc Berk & Beata Bierut, 2008.
"Monetary Policy Committees: meetings and outcomes,"
DNB Working Papers
184, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Sibert, Anne, 1999.
"Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anne Sibert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 649-665, 07.
- Anne Sibert, 1999. "Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations," CESifo Working Paper Series 226, CESifo Group Munich.
- Faust, Jon, 1996. "Whom can we trust to run the Fed? Theoretical support for the founders' views," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 267-283, April.
- Jan Marc Berk & Beata Bierut, 2004. "On the Optimality of Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-120/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Jan Marc Berk & Beata K. Bierut, 2005. "Communication in Monetary Policy Committees," DNB Working Papers 059, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Franz Dietrich & Christian List, 2002.
"A Model of Jury Decisions Where All Jurors Have the Same Evidence,"
2002-W23, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Christian List & Franz Dietrich, 2002. "A Model of Jury Decisions Where All Jurors Have The Same Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W23, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Henry W. Chappell, Jr. & Rob Roy McGregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2007. "The Role of the Bias in Crafting Consensus: FOMC Decision Making in the Greenspan Era," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 39-60, June.
- Serguei Kaniovski, 2010. "Aggregation of correlated votes and Condorcet’s Jury Theorem," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 453-468, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mrs. Alexandra Mazzuoccolo).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.