Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

MPC Voting, Forecasting and Inflation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Wojciech Charemza

    ()

  • Daniel Ladley

    ()

Abstract

This paper considers the effectiveness of monetary policy committee voting when the inflation forecast signals, upon which decisions are based, may be subject to manipulation. Using a discrete time intertemporal model, we examine the distortions resulting from such manipulation under a three-way voting system, similar to that used by the Bank of Sweden. We find that voting itself creates persistence in inflation. Whilst altering the forecast signal, even if well intentioned, results in a diminished probability of achieving the inflation target. However, if committee members ‘learn’ in a Bayesian manner, this problem is mitigated.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/repec/lec/leecon/dp12-23.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 12/23.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision: Jan 2013
Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:12/23

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK
Phone: +44 (0)116 252 2887
Fax: +44 (0)116 252 2908
Email:
Web page: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics/research/discussion-papers

Related research

Keywords: Voting Rules; Monetary Policy; Inflation Targeting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jan Marc Berk & Beata Bierut, 2004. "On the Optimality of Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-120/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
  3. Christian List & Franz Dietrich, 2002. "A Model of Jury Decisions Where All Jurors Have The Same Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W23, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2007. "Central bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimisitic," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-202789, Tilburg University.
  5. Aleksander Berentsen & Gabriele Camera & Christopher Waller, . "Money, Credit and Banking," IEW - Working Papers 219, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  6. Jan Marc Berk & Beata K. Bierut, 2005. "Communication in Monetary Policy Committees," DNB Working Papers 059, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. Timothy Besley & Neil Meads & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Insiders versus outsiders in monetary policymaking," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33743, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Serguei Kaniovski, 2010. "Aggregation of correlated votes and Condorcet’s Jury Theorem," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 453-468, September.
  9. Anne Sibert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 649-665, 07.
  10. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  11. Weber, Anke, 2008. "Communication, decision-making and the optimal degree of transparency of monetary policy committees," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Brooks, Robert & Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2007. "An Inflated Ordered Probit Model of Monetary Policy: Evidence from MPC Voting Data," MPRA Paper 8509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Faust, Jon, 1996. "Whom can we trust to run the Fed? Theoretical support for the founders' views," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 267-283, April.
  14. Berk, Jan Marc & Bierut, Beata K., 2009. "Monetary Policy Committees: meetings and outcomes," Working Paper Series 1070, European Central Bank.
  15. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Monetary policy committees and interest rate setting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 487-507, February.
  16. Henry W. Chappell, Jr. & Rob Roy McGregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2007. "The Role of the Bias in Crafting Consensus: FOMC Decision Making in the Greenspan Era," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 39-60, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:12/23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mrs. Alexandra Mazzuoccolo).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.