Structural cointegrated models of US consumption and wealth
AbstractTwo structural cointegrated models of consumption, labor income and wealth are specified and estimated with US data using the approach of Pagan and Pesaran (2008). We find that consumption and labor income are weakly exogenous in the estimated reduced form model and show that this imposes restrictions on the structural model. These restrictions imply that the structural shock with transitory effects can only appear in the structural equation for wealth. One of our structural models yields two permanent shocks that are identical to those obtained by Lettau and Ludvigson (2011) using the method of Gonzalo and Ng (2001). Following Lettau and Ludvigson we interpret the shocks as a productivity shock and a reallocation shock. The reallocation shock has an inverse effect on labor income and wealth, but has little effect on consumption, a result that is consistent with the permanent income hypothesis. Using an alternative restriction – which allows consumption growth to respond to contemporaneous labor income growth – to identify the two permanent shocks produces one important difference in our results. The reallocation shock now has a pronounced effect on consumption, a finding that can be explained if a sizable proportion of consumers are liquidity constrained.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617
Structural cointegrated model; Consumption; Wealth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989.
"Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
- Adrian R. Pagan & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008.
"Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks,"
2008-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
- Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Summers, Peter M., 2000. "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, January.
- repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996.
"A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks,"
Cahiers de recherche
9603, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October.
- Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 9603, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2003.
"Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption,"
NBER Working Papers
9848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 2002.
"Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2013.
"Shocks and Crashes,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 293-354
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.