Are Asset Returns Predictable from the National Accounts?
AbstractRational expectations and the logic of budget constraints imply that the predictability of asset returns hinges on the stability and persistence of households' ratio of saving to asset wealth, not of consumption to total wealth. This misalignment undermines the rationale for Lettau and Ludvigson's estimated cay, a stationary but unduly loose approximation to the true but non-mean-reverting cay. Definitional considerations on saving, assets and returns suggest rehabilitating money in the households' flow of funds identity. Accounting for money balances in cay restores stationarity, but at the cost of drastically lower persistence and predictive potential.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 189.
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2008-12-21 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-AGR-2008-12-21 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-12-21 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2008-12-21 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2006.
"On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 1-11, January.
- Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2002. "On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/02, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Michael Palumbo & Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "On the relationships between real consumption, income and wealth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999.
"Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- John H. Cochrane, 2008.
"The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
- John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Whelan, Karl, 2006.
"Consumption and Expected Asset Returns Without Assumptions About Unobservables,"
Research Technical Papers
4/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Whelan, Karl, 2008. "Consumption and expected asset returns without assumptions about unobservables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1209-1221, October.
- Whelan, Karl, 2006. "Consumption and Expected Asset Returns without Assumptions About Unobservables," MPRA Paper 5891, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004.
"Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2003. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," NBER Working Papers 9848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001.
"A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October.
- Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 9603, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 9603, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989.
"Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Empirical Proxies for the Consumption-Wealth Ratio," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 34-51, January.
- Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "Balanced Growth and Empirical Proxies of the Consumption-Wealth Ratio," Technical Reports 2006,26, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.