Fiscal multipliers over the growth cycle : evidence from Malaysia
AbstractThis paper explores the stabilisation properties of fiscal policy in Malaysia using a model incorporating nonlinearities into the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy and real economic activity over the growth cycle. The paper also investigates how output multipliers for government purchases may alter for different components of government spending. The authors find that fiscal policy in Malaysia has become increasingly pro-cyclical over the last 25 years and establish that the size of fiscal multipliers tend to change over the growth cycle. A 1 Malaysian Ringgit rise in government (investment) spending leads to a maximum output multiplier of around 2.7 during growth recessions, and around 2 in normal times. The returns to government spending in Malaysia are greater when the focus is on public investment, as opposed to consumption. Changes in tax policy are less effective in stimulating economic activity than direct government spending. These results provide empirical backing to conjectures in the recent literature implying that procyclicality in fiscal policy reduces the effectiveness of fiscal actions in emerging markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5982.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Debt Markets; Consumption; Public Sector Expenditure Policy; Economic Theory&Research; Public Sector Economics;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-03-21 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2012-03-21 (Public Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2012-03-21 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012.
"Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion,"
in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2011.
"Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks,"
2011 Meeting Papers
83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Bachmann, Rüdiger & Sims, Eric R., 2012. "Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 235-249.
- Rüdiger Bachmann & Eric R. Sims, 2011. "Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks," NBER Working Papers 17063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004.
"Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2003. "Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers wp0404, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
- Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011.
"When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78 - 121.
- Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," NBER Working Papers 15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_07-1.
- Shu-Chun S. Yang & Todd B. Walker & Eric M. Leeper, 2010.
"Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus,"
IMF Working Papers
10/229, International Monetary Fund.
- Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs," NBER Working Papers 15153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evi Pappa, 2005.
"New-keynesian or RBC transmission? The effects of fiscal shocks in labour markets,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
524, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Pappa, Evi, 2005. "New-Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010.
"Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Kirchner, Markus & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Hauptmeier, Sebastian, 2010. "Transmission of government spending shocks in the euro area: Time variation and driving forces," Working Paper Series 1219, European Central Bank.
- Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2008. "The effects of fiscal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1486-1508, June.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005.
"Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?,"
297, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," NBER Working Papers 11600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is Fiscal Policy often Procyclical?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1556, CESifo Group Munich.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2090, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000465, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010.
"Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2011.
"Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007.
"Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey,"
Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, 04.
- Romp, Ward & de Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Public capital and economic growth: a critical survey," EIB Papers 2/2005, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.