IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v115y2012i2p168-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Greater moderations

Author

Listed:
  • Keating, John
  • Valcarcel, Victor

Abstract

Using a 219-year sample, we find that the US output growth and inflation volatilities fell by 60% and 76%, respectively, from 1945 until the mid-1960s. This Postwar Moderation is more substantial than the Great Moderation. The largest reduction in inflation volatility occurred during the Classical Gold Standard period. Our empirical model implies that aggregate supply accounts for most of the changes in output growth volatility while aggregate demand accounts for most of the changes in inflation volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Keating, John & Valcarcel, Victor, 2012. "Greater moderations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 168-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:168-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511005325
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
    5. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-641, June.
    6. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    7. Romer, Christina D, 1989. "The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 1-37, February.
    8. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    9. Keating, John W & Nye, John V, 1998. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks in Real Output: Estimates from Nineteenth-Century and Postwar Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 231-251, May.
    10. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
    11. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2015. "The Time-Varying Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Shocks To Real Output," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 477-507, April.
    12. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    13. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 90(Q III), pages 5-32.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2015. "The Time-Varying Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Shocks To Real Output," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 477-507, April.
    2. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and the time-varying effects of aggregate shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 822-843.
    3. Max Soloschenko & Enzo Weber, 2021. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 109-128, November.
    4. Stephanos Papadamou & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2016. "Central bank transparency and exchange rate volatility effects on inflation-output volatility," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 125-133.
    5. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2015. "The great moderation in historical perspective. Is it that great?," Working Papers 1527, Banco de España.
    6. Carstensen, K. & Salzmann, L., 2017. "The G7 business cycle in a globalized world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 134-161.
    7. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201204, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    8. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2017. "What's so great about the Great Moderation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-142.
    9. Benjamín García, 2016. "Zero Lower Bound Risk and Long-Term Inflation in a Time Varying Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 796, Central Bank of Chile.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2017. "What's so great about the Great Moderation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-142.
    2. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    3. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    4. Benoit Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and the time-varying effects of aggregate shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 822-843.
    6. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
    7. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201204, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    8. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Murase, Koichi, 2013. "Great Moderation in the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 10-24.
    9. Cantore, C. & Ferroni, F. & León-Ledesma, M A., 2011. "Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship," Working papers 351, Banque de France.
    10. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 621-633, 04-05.
    12. Hofmann, Boris & Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 769-783.
    13. Adam, Klaus, 2009. "Monetary policy and aggregate volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 1-18.
    14. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2015. "The Time-Varying Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Shocks To Real Output," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 477-507, April.
    15. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 183-205, July.
    16. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.
    17. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.
    18. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    19. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, frictions, or monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    20. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    The Great Moderation; The Postwar Moderation; Time-varying parameters; Stochastic volatility; Structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:168-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.