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Monetary shocks, macroprudential shocks and financial stability

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  • Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew
  • Tarassow, Artur

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of monetary shocks and macroprudential shocks for aggregate financial fragility using a sign restricted VAR model estimated with US data spanning the period 1960Q1–2007Q4. Contractionary monetary shocks are found to exacerbate financial fragility, increasing both the credit to GDP ratio and the ‘financial ratio’, which is the ratio of firms' debts to their internal funds. By contrast, when interest rates are fixed, credit-constraining macroprudential shocks may be able to reduce the credit to GDP ratio in the short run but are not able to reduce the financial ratio. However, when the interest rate is free to accommodate the macroprudential shock, both the credit to GDP ratio and the financial ratio decline, indicating a reduction of financial fragility and suggesting that there may be gains from a coordinated approach to macroeconomic management.

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  • Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Tarassow, Artur, 2016. "Monetary shocks, macroprudential shocks and financial stability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:11-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; Monetary policy; Macroprudential policy; Sign restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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