On the sustainability of government deficits: some long-term evidence for Spain, 1850-2000
AbstractWe provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850-2000, from the estimation of a cointegration relationship between government expenditures and revenues derived from the intertemporal budget constraint. The longer than usual span of the data allows us to obtain more robust results on the fulfilment of the intertemporal budget constraint than most of the previous analyses. Two additional robustness checks are provided. First, we investigate the possibility of structural changes occurring along the period analyzed, using the new approach of Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) to testing for multiple structural changes in cointegrated regression models. Second, we investigate whether the behaviour of fiscal authorities has been non-linear, by means of the procedure of Hansen and Seo (2002) based on a threshold cointegration model. Our results show that (i) the government deficit has been strongly sustainable in the long run, (ii) no evidence is found on any significant structural break throughout the whole period, and (iii) fiscal sustainability has been attained due to the non-linear behaviour of fiscal authorities, which have only acted on the budget deficit when it has exceeded around 4.5% of GDP.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales in its series Working Papers with number 10-03.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
fiscal policy; sustainability; structural change; threshold cointegration; nonlinearity;
Other versions of this item:
- Oscar Bajo Rubio & Carmen Díaz Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2010. "On the sustainability of government deficits: Some long-term evidence for Spain, 1850-2000," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 263-281, November.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-06-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-06-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-06-11 (Macroeconomics)
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- Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2012.
"The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850–2000,"
Explorations in Economic History,
Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 105-117.
- Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 2010. "The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850-2000," Working Papers 10-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Natasa Bilkic & Ben Carreras Painter & Thomas Gries, 2012.
"Unsustainable Sovereign Debt - is the Euro Crisis only the Tip of the Iceberg?,"
56, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
- N. Bilkic & B. Carreras Painter & T. Gries, 2013. "Unsustainable sovereign debt—is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-45, March.
- Yoon, Gawon, 2012. "Explosive U.S. budget deficit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1076-1080.
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