Model Selection Criteria for the Leads-and-Lags Cointegrating Regression
AbstractIn this paper, Mallows'(1973) Cp criterion, Akaike's (1973) AIC, Hurvich and Tsai's (1989) corrected AIC and the BIC of Akaike (1978) and Schwarz (1978) are derived for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression. Deriving model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags regression is a nontrivial task since the true model is of infinite dimension. This paper justifies using the conventional formulas of those model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression. The numbers of leads and lags can be selected in scientific ways using the model selection criteria. Simulation results regarding the bias and mean squared error of the long-run coefficient estimates are reported. It is found that the model selection criteria are successful in reducing bias and mean squared error relative to the conventional, fixed selection rules. Among the model selection criteria, the BIC appears to be most successful in reducing MSE, and Cp in reducing bias. We also observe that, in most cases, the selection rules without the restriction that the numbers of the leads and lags be the same have an advantage over those with it.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number gd08-006.
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Cointegration; Leads-and-lags regression; AIC; Cor-rected AIC; BIC; Cp;
Other versions of this item:
- Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "Model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 224-238.
- In Choi & Eiji Kurozumi, 2008. "Model Selection Criteria for the Leads-and-Lags Cointegrating Regression," Working Papers 0801, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University, revised Aug 2009.
- Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2008. "Model Selection Criteria for the Leads-and-Lags Cointegrating Regression," CCES Discussion Paper Series 6, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
- NEP-ALL-2008-10-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2008-10-28 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2008-10-28 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-ORE-2008-10-28 (Operations Research)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1017, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Loretan, Mico, 1991.
"Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 407-36, May.
- Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-45, Oct.-Dec..
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Choi, In, 2004. "Cointegrating Smooth Transition Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 301-340, April.
- Ball, Laurence, 2001.
"Another look at long-run money demand,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-44, February.
- Jyh-lin, Wu & Fountas, Stilianos & Show-lin, Chen, 1996.
"Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 193-198, August.
- Jyh-lin Wu & Stilianos Fountas & Show-lin Chen, 1996. "Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Two Industrial Countries," Working Papers 11, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1996.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985.
"Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P C B & Durlauf, S N, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 473-95, August.
- Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Tom Doan, . "SWDOLS: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using dynamic OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00207, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March.
- Lewis, Richard & Reinsel, Gregory C., 1985. "Prediction of multivariate time series by autoregressive model fitting," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 393-411, June.
- Hussein, Khaled A., 1998. "International capital mobility in OECD countries: The Feldstein-Horioka 'puzzle' revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 237-242, May.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
- In Choi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2004. "Testing linearity in cointegrating smooth transition regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 341-365, December.
- Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec..
- Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990.
"Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
- Tom Doan, . "FM: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using Fully Modified Least Squares," Statistical Software Components RTS00069, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "Data Dependent Rules For Selection Of The Number Of Leads And Lags In The Dynamic Ols Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(05), pages 1425-1441, October.
- Zivot, Eric, 2000. "Cointegration and forward and spot exchange rate regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 785-812, December.
- Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Small Sample Bias and Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 52-58, February.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis, 2004. "A comparison of autoregressive distributed lag and dynamic OLS cointegration estimators in the case of a serially correlated cointegration error," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 585-617, December.
- Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an appl," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 315-334, October.
- Bentzen, Jan, 2004. "Estimating the rebound effect in US manufacturing energy consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 123-134, January.
- Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Wagner, Martin, 2011.
"Integrated Modified OLS Estimation and Fixed-b Inference for Cointegrating Regressions,"
263, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Wagner, Martin, 2014. "Integrated modified OLS estimation and fixed-b inference for cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 741-760.
- Jack R. Rogers, 2013. "Monetary Transmission to UK Retail Mortgage Rates before and after August 2007," Discussion Papers 1307, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
- Hadri, Kaddour & Kurozumi, Eiji & Rao, Yao, 2013. "Novel Panel Cointegration Tests Emending for Cross-Section Dependence with N Fixed," Discussion Papers 2013-12, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tatsuji Makino).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.