IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/exe/wpaper/1307.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Transmission to UK Retail Mortgage Rates before and after August 2007

Author

Listed:
  • Jack R. Rogers

    (Department of Economics, University of Exeter)

Abstract

This paper investigates the transmission from UK policy and a range of wholesale money market rates to retail mortgage rates using the long-run estimator proposed by Phillips and Loretan (1991), with a single-equation error correction model (SEECM) framework, from 1995 to 2009. I document the economy-wide effect of the financial market turmoil since August 2007, and show how this has altered long- and short-term relationships. In the long-run there is evidence of a contrast between the discounted mortgage rates that banks may use to initially attract customers, and standard variable rates, with pass-through complete for the former but not for the latter. For fixed rate mortgages, pass-through is generally complete. Since the crisis, for eight of the seventeen estimated relationships I find strong evidence in the long-run of both a significant jump in equilibrium spreads, and a fall in pass-through, whilst in the short-run there is a considerable weakening of the process that re-adjusts retail rates back towards their equilibrium with the money market. Although I do not find strong statistical evidence for an asymmetric re-adjustment process before August 2007, retail mortgage rates generally take considerably longer to move back towards their equilibrium with wholesale rates during times when they are relatively expensive. These results add to previous studies by showing that the UK retail banking sector is imperfectly competitive at the aggregate level, and also suggest that discounted rates are used as a highly competitive loss-leader product.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack R. Rogers, 2013. "Monetary Transmission to UK Retail Mortgage Rates before and after August 2007," Discussion Papers 1307, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:1307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://exetereconomics.github.io/RePEc/dpapers/DP1307.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2002. "Central Banks and Market Interest Rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 569-585, July.
    2. Peel, David & Davidson, James, 1998. "A non-linear error correction mechanism based on the bilinear model1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 165-170, February.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    4. Dale, Spencer & Haldane, Andrew G, 1998. "Interest Rate Control in a Model of Monetary Policy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(3), pages 354-375, June.
    5. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-141, March-Apr.
    6. Boris Hofmann & Paul Mizen, 2004. "Interest Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Transmission: Evidence from Individual Financial Institutions' Retail Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 99-123, February.
    7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    8. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    9. Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "Model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 224-238.
    10. Beechey, Meredith & Hjalmarsson, Erik & sterholm, Pr, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 934-943, May.
    11. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "Data Dependent Rules For Selection Of The Number Of Leads And Lags In The Dynamic Ols Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1425-1441, October.
    12. Buiter, Willem, 2007. "Lessons from the 2007 Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, Decembrie.
    14. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitri & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2008. "Monetary policy transparency and pass-through of retail interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 501-511, April.
    15. Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Staff Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Harimohan, Rashmi & McLeay, Michael & Young, Garry, 2016. "Pass-through of bank funding costs to lending and deposit rates: lessons from the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 590, Bank of England.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaddour Hadri & Eiji Kurozumi & Yao Rao, 2015. "Novel panel cointegration tests emending for cross‐section dependence with N fixed," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 363-411, October.
    2. Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Wagner, Martin, 2014. "Integrated modified OLS estimation and fixed-b inference for cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 741-760.
    3. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2018. "Confidence Sets for the Break Date in Cointegrating Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(3), pages 514-535, June.
    4. David Neto, 2023. "Penalized leads-and-lags cointegrating regression: a simulation study and two empirical applications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 949-971, August.
    5. Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "Model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 224-238.
    6. Martin Wagner & Dominik Wied, 2017. "Consistent Monitoring of Cointegrating Relationships: The US Housing Market and the Subprime Crisis," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 960-980, November.
    7. Valadkhani, Abbas & Worthington, Andrew, 2014. "Asymmetric behavior of Australia's Big-4 banks in the mortgage market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 57-66.
    8. Kurozumi, Eiji & Hayakawa, Kazuhiko, 2009. "Asymptotic properties of the efficient estimators for cointegrating regression models with serially dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 118-135, April.
    9. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitri & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2008. "Monetary policy transparency and pass-through of retail interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 501-511, April.
    10. Noura Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2015. "Towards Adopting Inflation Targeting in Emerging Markets: The (A)symmetric Transmission Mechanism in Jordan," Working Papers 2015013, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    11. Abbas Valadkhani & Sajid Anwar & Amir Arjonandi, 2012. "How to capture the full extent of price stickiness in credit card interest rates?," Economics Working Papers wp12-02, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    12. Marcel Schroder, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    13. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2013. "The pricing behaviour of Australian banks and building societies in the residential mortgage market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 133-151.
    14. Roseline N. Misati & Esman M. Nyamongo & Anne W. Kamau, 2011. "Interest rate pass‐through in Kenya," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 170-182, July.
    15. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitris & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2011. "Asymmetric information and price competition in small business lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2189-2196, September.
    16. Abbas Valadkhani & Sajid Anwar & Amir Arjomandi, 2014. "Downward stickiness of interest rates in the Australian credit card market," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 52-65, January.
    17. Schröder, Marcel, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 140-151.
    18. Ming-Hua Liu & Dimitris Margaritis & Zhuo Qiao, 2016. "The Global Financial Crisis and Retail Interest Rate Pass-Through in Australia," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-32, December.
    19. Skrobotov, Anton, 2021. "Structural breaks in cointegration models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 117-141.
    20. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage Rates; Monetary Transmission; Error Correction Model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:1307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sebastian Kripfganz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deexeuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.