IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2007-089.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Market Risk and U.S. Money Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. David Cook
  • Woon Gyu Choi

Abstract

This paper examines empirically U.S. broad money demand emphasizing the role of financial market risk. We find that money demand rises with the liquidity risk of stock markets or the credit risk of corporate bond markets. After controlling for the effect of financial market risk, money demand becomes relatively stable over the last 35 years. At the sectoral level, household money holdings continue to be stable in a traditional model controlling for a decline in transactions costs for investing in mutual funds in the early 1990s. In contrast, business money holdings have been consistently (positively) associated with credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Financial Market Risk and U.S. Money Demand," IMF Working Papers 2007/089, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20643
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2006. "Introduction to EASE-15: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 1-5, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    3. Athanasios Orphanides & Brian K. Reid & David H. Small, 1994. "The empirical properties of a monetary aggregate that adds bond and stock funds to M2," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-51.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D., 2000. "P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 87-100.
    5. Sean Collins & Cheryl L. Edwards, 1994. "An alternative monetary aggregate: M2 plus household holdings of bond and equity mutual funds," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 7-29.
    6. Woon Gyu Choi & David Cook, 2006. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 309-335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    8. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2006. "Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_06-1, March.
    9. Sean Collins & Cheryl L. Edwards, 1994. "An alternative monetary aggregate: M2 plus household holdings of bond and equity mutual funds," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 7-29.
    10. Cole, Harold L. & Ohanian, Lee E., 2002. "Shrinking money: the demand for money and the nonneutrality of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 653-686, May.
    11. Robert E. Lucas, 2001. "Inflation and Welfare," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 4, pages 96-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Becsi, Zsolt & Duca, John V., 1994. "Adding bond funds to M2 in the P-Star model of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 143-147, October.
    13. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    14. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, March.
    15. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:1:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    17. Lerner, Josh & Schoar, Antoinette, 2004. "The illiquidity puzzle: theory and evidence from private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 3-40, April.
    18. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    19. Richard G. Anderson, 2003. "Retail deposit sweep programs: issues for measurement, modeling and analysis," Working Papers 2003-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Dutkowsky, Donald H & Cynamon, Barry Z, 2003. "Sweep Programs: The Fall of M1 and Rebirth of the Medium of Exchange," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 263-279, April.
    21. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    22. Duca, John V., 1993. "RTC activity and the 'missing M2'," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 67-71.
    23. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \\"M\\" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
    24. Subramanian S. Sriram, 2001. "A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-3.
    25. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
    26. Duca, John V, 2000. "Financial Technology Shocks and the Case of the Missing M2," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 820-839, November.
    27. Seth B. Carpenter & Joe Lange, 2003. "Money demand and equity markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Choi, Woon Gyu & Oh, Seonghwan, 2003. "A Money Demand Function with Output Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and Financial Innovations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 685-709, October.
    29. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \"M\" back in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 761, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    31. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    32. John B. Carlson & Jeffrey C. Schwarz, 1999. "Effects of movements in equities prices on M2 demand," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-9.
    33. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    34. John V. Duca, 1993. "Should bond funds be included in M2?," Working Papers 9321, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    35. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    36. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    37. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April.
    38. James P. Dow & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 1998. "The effect of stock prices on the demand for money market mutual funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    39. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    40. Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew K. (ed.), 2006. "Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226378978, December.
    41. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
    42. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-168, May.
    43. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    44. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
    45. Allan H. Meltzer, 2001. "The Transmission Process," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, chapter 3, pages 112-130, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    2. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Working Paper Series 1435, European Central Bank.
    4. Cook, David, 2009. "The puzzling dual of the uncovered interest parity puzzle evidence from Pacific Rim capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 449-456, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    2. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    3. Donald H. Dutkowsky & Barry Z. Cynamon & Barry E. Jones, 2006. "U.S. Narrow Money for the Twenty-First Century," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 142-152, January.
    4. Miralles Marcelo, José Luis & Miralles Quirós, María Del Mar & Oliveira, Célia, 2015. "Systematic liquidity: commonality and inter-temporal variation in the Portuguese stock market," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    5. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    6. Thomas Paul & Thomas Walther & André Küster-Simic, 2022. "Empirical analysis of the illiquidity premia of German real estate securities," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 203-260, June.
    7. Ijaz Ur Rehman & Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan & Rozaimah Zainudin, 2016. "Is the relationship between macroeconomy and stock market liquidity mutually reinforcing? Evidence from an emerging market," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 294-316.
    8. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    9. Liu, Weimin & Luo, Di & Zhao, Huainan, 2016. "Transaction costs, liquidity risk, and the CCAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 126-145.
    10. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2007. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1783-1831, November.
    11. Kim, Soonho & Na, Haejung, 2018. "Higher-moment liquidity risks and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 39-59.
    12. Wang, Jianxin, 2013. "Liquidity commonality among Asian equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1209-1231.
    13. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Commonality in liquidity among Middle East and North Africa emerging stock markets: Does it really matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    14. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    15. Sophie Altermatt, 2018. "The Long-Run Demand for M2 Reconsidered," Diskussionsschriften dp1824, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    16. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2021. "A Classical View of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 333-366, March.
    17. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    19. Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Hat die Geldmenge ausgedient?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 423-453, November.
    20. Andres, Christian & Cumming, Douglas & Karabiber, Timur & Schweizer, Denis, 2014. "Do markets anticipate capital structure decisions? — Feedback effects in equity liquidity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 133-156.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.