Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?

Contents:

Author Info

  • John V. Duca

Abstract

John Duca assesses the possibility that adding bond mutual funds, equity mutual funds, or both to M2 would improve this monetary aggregate's ability to forecast nominal GDP growth. He finds that M2B (M2 plus bond funds) and M2+ (M2 plus bond and stock funds) are statistically significant in explaining past nominal GDP growth. Duca further shows that M2B and M2+ each yield better forecasts of nominal GDP growth since 1990 than does M2, but to a lesser extent when the federal funds rate and the ten-year Treasury note yield are included in his forecasting model. Because bond and equity mutual funds are less directly influenced by the Federal Reserve than M2, Duca cautions that, relative to M2, M2B and M2+ are likely to be less controllable by the Federal Reserve. ; Given these findings, Duca argues that M2B and M2+ show promise as information variables that the Federal Reserve may use along with other economic indicators in setting monetary policy. Recent forecast results and anecdotal information suggest that if equity funds continue to become more substitutable for nontransactions deposits, M2+ may prove to be increasingly helpful in this capacity.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/er/1994/er9404a.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its journal Economic and Financial Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (1994)
Issue (Month): Q IV ()
Pages: 1-14

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1994:i:qiv:p:1-14

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Gross domestic product ; Money supply;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. David H. Small & Richard D. Porter, 1989. "Understanding the behavior of M2 and V2," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 244-254.
  2. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  4. Mark A. Wynne, 1993. "Price stability and economic growth," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue May, pages 1-5.
  5. James H. Stock & Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing," NBER Working Papers 4888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Zsolt Becsi & John V. Duca, 1994. "Adding bond funds to M2 in the P-star model of inflation," Working Papers 9401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. Athanasios Orphanides & Brian Reid & David H. Small, 1994. "The empirical properties of a monetary aggregate that adds bond and stock funds to M2," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-51.
  8. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  9. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  10. John V. Duca, 1993. "Regulation, bank competitiveness, and episodes of missing money," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr, pages 1-23.
  11. Thomas D. Simpson, 1980. "The redefined monetary aggregates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 97-114.
  12. Emery, Kenneth M., 1994. "Inflation persistence and Fisher effects: Evidence of a regime change," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 141-152, August.
  13. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
  14. Flint Brayton & P.A. Tinsley, 1993. "Interest rate policies for price stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. John V. Duca, 1993. "Should bond funds be included in M2?," Research Paper 9321, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
  2. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Financial Market Risk and U.S. Money Demand," IMF Working Papers 07/89, International Monetary Fund.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1994:i:qiv:p:1-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Delia Rodriguez).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.