Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts

Contents:

Author Info

  • De Santis, Roberto A.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We challenge the view that the relationship between money and prices is too loose in countries with low inflation rates and argue that cross-border portfolio shifts are the root cause of the volatility in real money balances. The novelty of this paper is that we model jointly in the euro area and the United States (i) the equilibrium in the money market that takes into account the cross-border portfolio shifts, and (ii) the equilibrium in the domestic asset markets, by finding a no-arbitrage relation between domestic long-horizon expected stock and bond returns. We estimate a stable money demand in the long-run and find that the short-run correlation between annual inflation and model-based excess money growth is not statistically different from unity in both the euro area and the United States. We also find that the resulting long-run equity risk premium comoves counter-cyclically with quarterly real GDP growth in both economies. JEL Classification: E31, E41, E51, E52, G58, F40

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1435.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1435.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: May 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121435

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
    Phone: +49 69 1344 0
    Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
    Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: asset prices; Money demand;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. John V. Duca, 1992. "The case of the missing M2," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 1-24.
    2. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    3. Joseph G. Haubrich & Ann M. Dombrosky, 1996. "Predicting real growth using the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 26-35.
    4. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    5. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    6. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Stock Market Downswing and the Stability of European Monetary Union Money Demand," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 395-402, October.
    7. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2008. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth: Long-Run Evidence, 1875-1997," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 182-185, February.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Paper 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-28, February.
    10. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    11. Hyun Song Shin & Emanuel Moench & Tobias Adrian, 2010. "Financial Intermediation, Asset Prices, and Macroeconomic Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 297, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Choi, Woon Gyu & Oh, Seonghwan, 2003. " A Money Demand Function with Output Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and Financial Innovations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 685-709, October.
    13. Alessandro Calza & Andrea Zaghini, 2010. "Sectoral Money Demand and the Great Disinflation in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1663-1678, December.
    14. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Financial Market Risk and U.S. Money Demand," IMF Working Papers 07/89, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Hromcova, Jana, 1998. "A note on income velocity of money in a cash-in-advance economy with capital," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 91-96, July.
    16. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2006. "Does the yield curve signal recession?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Gianni Amisano & Roberta Colavecchio, 2013. "Money Growth and Inflation: evidence from a Markov Switching Bayesian VAR," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201304, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121435. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.