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Does the yield curve signal recession?

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities—a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.

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File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/commentary/2006/0415.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Commentary.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): Apr ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2006:i:apr15

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Related research

Keywords: Recessions ; Economic forecasting ; Interest rates;

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Cited by:
  1. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Working Paper Series 1435, European Central Bank.
  3. Mikhail V. Oet & Ryan Eiben & Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2011. "The financial stress index: identification of systemic risk conditions," Working Paper 1130, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

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