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Is quantity theory still alive?

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  • Teles, Pedro
  • Uhlig, Harald

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the quantity theory of money is still alive. We demonstrate three insights. First, for countries with low inflation, the raw relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best. Second, the fit markedly improves, when correcting for variation in output growth and the opportunity cost of money, using elasticities implied by theories of Baumol-Tobin and Miller-Orr. Finally, the sample after 1990 shows considerably less inflation variability, worsening the fit of a one-for-one relationship between money growth and inflation, and generates a fairly low elasticity of money demand. JEL Classification: E31, E41, E42, E50

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1605.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131605

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Keywords: inflation targeting; money demand; money demand elasticity; quantity theory;

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References

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  1. Ball, Laurence, 2001. "Another look at long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-44, February.
  2. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2006. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 06/121, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Dutta, Jayasri & Kapur, Sandeep, 1998. "Liquidity Preference and Financial Intermediation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 551-72, July.
  4. Pedro Teles & Ruilin Zhou, 2005. "A stable money demand: Looking for the right monetary aggregate," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 50-63.
  5. Orazio Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 1998. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Households' Data," CSEF Working Papers 03, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  6. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
  7. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2009. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 476-515, August.
  8. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money at Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 1999. "The Optimal Inflation Tax," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 325-346, April.
  10. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
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Cited by:
  1. von Thadden, Leopold, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in an OLG model with non-superneutral money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 147-166.
  2. Claude Hillinger & Bernd Süssmuth & Marco Sunder, 2012. "The Quantity Theory of Money and Friedmanian Monetary Policy: An Empirical Investigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 3754, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Seitz, Franz & Schmidt, Markus A., 2014. "Money in modern macro models: A review of the arguments," OTH im Dialog: Weidener Diskussionspapiere 37, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
  5. Gianni Amisano & Roberta Colavecchio, 2013. "Money Growth and Inflation: evidence from a Markov Switching Bayesian VAR," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201304, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.

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