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Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?

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  • Teles, Pedro
  • Uhlig, Harald

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the quantity theory of money is still alive. We argue that it is, but that the slippage is not negligible. For countries with low inflation, the relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best. A correction for variation in output growth and the opportunity cost of money, using theory implied elasticities, helps explain the slippage. For the period since 1990, inflation targeting at low rates of inflation makes it harder to establish the long run relationship between monetary growth and inflation.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8049.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8049

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Keywords: Inflation; Money demand; Quantity Theory of Money;

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References

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  1. Attanasio, Orazio & Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio, 1998. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Households' Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 1927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Pedro Teles & Ruilin Zhou, 2005. "A stable money demand: Looking for the right monetary aggregate," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 50-63.
  3. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Money at Low Frequencies," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 534-542, 04-05.
  4. Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 1999. "The Optimal Inflation Tax," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 325-346, April.
  5. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2009. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 476-515, August.
  6. Dutta, Jayasri & Kapur, Sandeep, 1998. "Liquidity Preference and Financial Intermediation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 551-72, July.
  7. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
  8. Ball, Laurence, 2001. "Another look at long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-44, February.
  9. Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
  10. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2006. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 06/121, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gianni Amisano & Roberta Colavecchio, 2013. "Money Growth and Inflation: evidence from a Markov Switching Bayesian VAR," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201304, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  2. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto & Henri Nyberg, 2014. "Is the Quantity Theory of Money Useful in Forecasting U.S. Inflation?," CREATES Research Papers 2014-26, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Claude Hillinger & Bernd Süssmuth & Marco Sunder, 2012. "The Quantity Theory of Money and Friedmanian Monetary Policy: An Empirical Investigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 3754, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. von Thadden, Leopold, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in an OLG model with non-superneutral money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 147-166.
  5. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Seitz, Franz & Schmidt, Markus A., 2014. "Money in modern macro models: A review of the arguments," OTH im Dialog: Weidener Diskussionspapiere 37, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).

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