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Myths and facts about the alleged over-pricing of U.S. real estate. Evidence from multi-factor asset pricing models of REIT returns

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Author Info

  • Massimo Guidolin

    ()
    (IGIER, Bocconi University and CAIR, Manchester Business School)

  • Francesco Ravazzolo

    ()
    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Andrea Donato Tortora

    ()
    (Bocconi University, Milan)

Abstract

This paper uses a multi-factor pricing model with time-varying risk exposures and premia to examine whether the 2003-2006 period has been characterized, as often claimed by a number of commentators and policymakers, by a substantial missprcing of publicly traded real estate assets (REITs). The estimation approach relies on Bayesian methods to model the latent process followed by risk exposures and idiosynchratic volatility. Our application to monthly, 1979-2009 U.S. data for stock, bond, and REIT returns shows that both market and real consumption growth risks are priced throughout the sample by the cross-section of asset returns. There is weak evidence at best of structural misspricing of REIT valuations during the 2003-2006 sample.

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File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2011/WP-201119/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2011/19.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 27 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2011_19

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Keywords: REIT returns; Bayesian estimation; Structural instability; Stochastic volatility; Linear factor models;

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  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, 06.
  3. Karolyi, G Andrew & Sanders, Anthony B, 1998. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums in Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 245-62, November.
  4. Massimo Guidolin & Yu Man Tam, 2010. "A yield spread perspective on the great financial crisis: break-point test evidence," Working Papers 2010-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. K.C. Chan & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1990. "Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs," NBER Working Papers 3311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
  7. Giordani, P. & Kohn, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2005. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change and outliers," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  8. Ouysse, Rachida & Kohn, Robert, 2010. "Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in the arbitrage pricing theory model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3249-3268, December.
  9. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
  10. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2000. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 7590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Glascock, John L, 1991. "Market Conditions, Risk, and Real Estate Portfolio Returns: Some Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 367-73, December.
  12. Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Betas," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(04), pages 747-778, December.
  13. Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Donato Tortora, 2011. "A Bayesian multi-factor model of instability in prices and quantities of risk in U.S. financial markets," Working Papers 2011-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
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