A Bayesian multi-factor model of instability in prices and quantities of risk in U.S. financial markets
AbstractThis paper analyzes the empirical performance of two alternative ways in which multi-factor models with time-varying risk exposures and premia may be estimated. The first method echoes the seminal two-pass approach advocated by Fama and MacBeth (1973). The second approach extends previous work by Ouysse and Kohn (2010) and is based on a Bayesian approach to modelling the latent process followed by risk exposures and idiosynchratic volatility. Our application to monthly, 1979-2008 U.S. data for stock, bond, and publicly traded real estate returns shows that the classical, two-stage approach that relies on a nonparametric, rolling window modelling of time-varying betas yields results that are unreasonable. There is evidence that all the portfolios of stocks, bonds, and REITs have been grossly over-priced. On the contrary, the Bayesian approach yields sensible results as most portfolios do not appear to have been misspriced and a few risk premia are precisely estimated with a plausibile sign. Real consumption growth risk turns out to be the only factor that is persistently priced throughout the sample.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2011-003.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pooter, M.D. de & Ravazzolo, F. & Segers, R. & Dijk, H.K. van, 2008. "Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models," Econometric Institute Report EI 2008-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
- Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Donato Tortora, 2011.
"Myths and facts about the alleged over-pricing of U.S. real estate. Evidence from multi-factor asset pricing models of REIT returns,"
2011/19, Norges Bank.
- Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Donato Tortora, 2011. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate. Evidence from Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models of REIT Returns," Working Papers 416, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Xiao Xiaohong) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Xiao Xiaohong to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.