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Is Inflation Persistence Over?

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  • Fernando N. de Oliveira
  • Myrian Petrassi

Abstract

We analyze inflation persistence in several industrial and emerging countries in the recent past by estimating reduced-form models of inflation dynamics. We select a very representative group of 23 industrial and 17 emerging economies. Our sample period is comprised of quarterly data and starts in the first quarter of 1995. Our results show that inflation persistence is low and stable for all countries in our sample. It seems to be lower in industrial relative to emerging countries. Finally, even countries that have had “hyperinflation” experience in the recent past showed low levels of inflation persistence, albeit apparently higher than the other countries in our sample.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps230.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 230.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:230

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Dossche, Maarten & Everaert, Gerdie, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Paper Series 0495, European Central Bank.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  4. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
  5. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
  6. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-72, April.
  7. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 243, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  9. Jeff Fuhrer, 2005. "Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence," Working Papers 05-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  10. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
  11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
  12. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Takami, Marcelo & Rocha, Jadson M.C. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Souza, Sergio R.S., 2014. "Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 211-216.
  2. Michelle Chan & Silvia Matos, 2011. "Changes In Brazilian Inflationpersistence," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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