The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation
Abstract
This paper brings together two strands of the empirical macro literature: the reduced-form evidence that the yield spread helps in forecasting output and the structural evidence on the difficulties of estimating the effect of monetary policy on output in an intertemporal Euler equation. We show that including a short-term interest rate and inflation in the forecasting equation improves the forecasting performance of the spread for future output but the coefficients on the short rate and inflation are difficult to interpret using a standard macroeconomic framework. A decomposition of the yield spread into an expectations-related component and a term premium allows a better understanding of the forecasting model. In fact, the best forecasting model for output is obtained by considering the term premium, the short-term interest rate and inflation as predictors. We provide a possible structural interpretation of these results by allowing for time-varying risk aversion, linearly related to our estimate of the term premium, in an intertemporal Euler equation for output.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4910.Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4910
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Related research
Keywords: estimated Euler equation; forecasting; GDP growth; predictability; term structure of interest rates; yield curve;Other versions of this item:
- Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2005-06-14 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2005-06-14 (Macroeconomics)
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Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
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