A Copula-VAR-X Approach for Industrial Production Modelling and Forecasting
AbstractWorld economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decades and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of Copulas to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal distributions that better fit the features of empirical data, such as leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core EMU countries and we provide evidence that the copula-VAR model outperforms or at worst compares similarly to normal VAR models, keeping the same computational tractability of the latter approach.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods in its series Quaderni di Dipartimento with number 105.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
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Postal: Via S. Felice, 5 - 27100 Pavia
Web page: http://dipartimenti.unipv.eu/on-dip/epmq/Home.html
More information through EDIRC
Forecasting; Industrial Production; Copulas; VAR models.;
Other versions of this item:
- Carluccio Bianchi & Alessandro Carta & Dean Fantazzini & Maria Elena De Giuli & Mario Maggi, 2010. "A copula-VAR-X approach for industrial production modelling and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3267-3277.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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