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Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium

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Author Info
Glenn D. Rudebusch
Brian P. Sack
Eric T. Swanson

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Abstract

Linearized New Keynesian models and empirical no-arbitrage macro-finance models offer little insight regarding the implications of changes in bond term premiums for economic activity. We investigate these implications using both a structural model and a reduced-form framework. We show that there is no structural relationship running from the term premium to economic activity, but a reduced-form empirical analysis does suggest that a decline in the term premium has typically been associated with stimulus to real economic activity, which contradicts earlier results in the literature.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006-46.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-46

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Economic forecasting ; Econometric models;

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  28. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Glenn Rudebusch & Eric Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pereira, Manuel C, 2009. "A new measure of fiscal shocks based on budget forecasts and its implications," MPRA Paper 17475, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," Staff Reports 317, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2007. "Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 07-30, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Fair, Ray C., 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 32, Yale University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Wendell A. Samuel & Mario Dehesa & Emilio Pineda, 2009. "Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stefano Nobili & Gerardo Palazzo, 2008. "A beta based framework for (lower) bond risk premia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 689, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the curvature factor of the term structure of interest rates," MPRA Paper 11597, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jacob Poke & Graeme Wells, 2007. "The Term Spread And Gdp Growth In Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2007-27, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "What we do and don't know about the term premium," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jul 20. [Downloadable!]
  14. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Commentary on "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 271-282. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Documents de Travail 234, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  20. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  21. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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