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Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

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Author Info
Tamim Bayoumi
Andrew Swiston

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Abstract

Vector autoregressions of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the United States, the euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of smaller countries proxying for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, but those from the euro area and Japan are small. This paper calculates the standard errors of impulse-response functions, including uncertainty over the proper Cholesky ordering. Extensions adding exports, commodity prices, and financial variables indicate that financial effects are the largest source of spillovers. The results by subperiod underline the importance of the great moderation in U.S. output fluctuations and associated financial stability in lowering output volatility elsewhere. IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 353–383. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.23; published online 9 September 2008

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan Journals in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 56 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 353-383
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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:56:y:2009:i:2:p:353-383

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Measuring World Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
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  6. Michel Juillard & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrew Swiston & Tamim Bayoumi, 2007. "The Ties that Bind: Measuring International Bond Spillovers Using the Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 07/128, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Andrew Swiston & Tamim Bayoumi, 2008. "Spillovers Across NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 08/3, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Louis, Rosmy J & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2009. "Are Mortgage Rates Bubbling Up Trouble for Canadas Metropolitan Housing Sector?," MPRA Paper 17245, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Charles Freedman & Marianne Johnson & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/85, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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