Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Vespignani, Joaquin L.
  • Ratti, Ronald A.

Abstract

It is found that over 1999:1-2012:12 China’s monetary expansion influences Japan through the effect of China’s growth on world commodity prices, increased demand for imports, and exchange rate policy. China’s monetary expansion is associated with significant increases in Japan’s industrial production, exports and inflation, and decreases in the trade-weighted yen. In contrast, U.S. monetary expansion results in contraction in Japan’s industrial production, exports and trade balance (expenditure-switching). Monetary expansion in the Euro area does not significantly affect Japan. Structural vector error correction models are estimated. Results are robust to various contemporaneous restrictions for the effect of international monetary variables, the interaction of foreign and domestic variables and to factor augmented VAR to identify monetary shocks.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48709/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48709.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 15 Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48709

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: International Monetary shocks; Japanese economy; Oil/commodity prices; SVEC models;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2011. "International Recessions," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-26, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  2. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Cai Zongwu & Chen Linna & Fang Ying, 2012. "A New Forecasting Model for USD/CNY Exchange Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, September.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M., 2001. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December.
  7. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
  8. Anzuini, Alessio & Lombardi, Marco J. & Pagano, Patrizio, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Working Paper Series 1232, European Central Bank.
  9. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2007. "Is there a direct effect of money?: Money's role in an estimated monetary business cycle model of the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 329-337, August.
  10. Yoshiyasu Ono & Kazuo Ogawa & Atsushi Yoshida, 2004. "The Liquidity Trap And Persistent Unemployment With Dynamic Optimizing Agents: Empirical Evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 355-371.
  11. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "Effects of monetary policy shocks on the trade balance in small open European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 197-203, May.
  12. Dedola, L. & Lippi, F., 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Industries of Five OECD Countries," Papers, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi 389, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  13. di Giovanni, Julian & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 341-361, March.
  14. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  15. Ryu-ichiro Murota & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2009. "Zero Nominal Interest Rates, Unemployment, Excess Reserves and Deflation in a Liquidity Trap," ISER Discussion Paper 0748, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  16. Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia - Monetary Policy and Equity Markets," Working Paper Series, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics 2010-16, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
  17. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
  18. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
  20. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2006. "International Asymmetry In Business Activity And Appreciation Of A Stagnant Country'S Currency," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 101-120.
  21. Svensson, Lars E O & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 785-805, September.
  22. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
  24. Fabio Canova, 2003. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Economics Working Papers 925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004.
  25. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  26. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  27. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
  28. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2007. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, CESifo, vol. 53(1), pages 2-41, March.
  29. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  30. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
  31. Nagayasu, Jun, 2007. "Empirical analysis of the exchange rate channel in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 887-904, October.
  32. Kim, Soyoung & Yang, Doo Yong, 2012. "International monetary transmission in East Asia: Floaters, non-floaters, and capital controls," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 305-316.
  33. Tomasz Koluk & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South-East Asia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(1), pages 121-145, 01.
  34. Ma, Guonan & McCauley, Robert N., 2011. "The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-38, March.
  35. Fan, Longzhen & Yu, Yihong & Zhang, Chu, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of China's monetary policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 358-371, June.
  36. Koray, Faik & McMillin, W. Douglas, 1999. "Monetary shocks, the exchange rate, and the trade balance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 925-940, December.
  37. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  38. Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
  39. Hosono, Kaoru, 2006. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Japan: Evidence from banks' balance sheets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 380-405, September.
  40. Fang, Ying & Huang, Shicheng & Niu, Linlin, 2012. "De facto currency baskets of China and East Asian economies: The rising weights," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.