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A black swan in the money market

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Author Info
John B. Taylor
John C. Williams

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Abstract

At the center of the financial market crisis of 2007-2008 was a highly unusual jump in spreads between the overnight inter-bank lending rate and term London inter-bank offer rates (Libor). Because many private loans are linked to Libor rates, the sharp increase in these spreads raised the cost of borrowing and interfered with monetary policy. The widening spreads became a major focus of the Federal Reserve, which took several actions--including the introduction of a new term auction facility (TAF)--to reduce them. This paper documents these developments and, using a no-arbitrage model of the term structure, tests various explanations, including increased risk and greater liquidity demands, while controlling for expectations of future interest rates. We show that increased counterparty risk between banks contributed to the rise in spreads and find no empirical evidence that the TAF has reduced spreads. The results have implications for monetary policy and financial economics.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2008-04.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-04

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Monetary policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul. [Downloadable!]
  4. Anderson, Richard G & Rasche, Robert H, 1982. "What Do Money Market Models Tell Us about How to Implement Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 796-828, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael Melvin & Vincentiu Covrig & Buen Low, . "A Yen is not a Yen: TIBOR/LIBOR and the determinants of the 'Japan Premium'," Working Papers 2133360, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. John P. Judd & John L. Scadding, 1982. "What do money market models tell us about how to implement monetary policy: reply," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 108, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?," Working Paper Series 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Lenders of Last Resort in a Globalized World," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-18, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008. "Crisis and Responses: the Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008," NBER Working Papers 14134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tao Wu, 2008. "On the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's new liquidity facilities," Working Papers 0808, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jens Eisenschmidt & Jens Tapking, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "The Fed, liquidity, and credit allocation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 13-22. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cho-Hoi Hui & Hans Genberg & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2009. "Funding Liquidity Risk and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," Working Papers 0913, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
  8. John B. Taylor, 2008. "The Mayekawa Lecture: The Way Back to Stability and Growth in the Global Economy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 26, pages 37-48, December. [Downloadable!]
  9. Adam B. Ashcraft & Morten L. Bech & W. Scott Frame, 2008. "The Federal Home Loan Bank System: the lender of next-to-last resort?," Staff Reports 357, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. James McAndrews & Asani Sarkar & Zhenyu Wang, 2008. "The effect of the Term Auction Facility on the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate," Staff Reports 335, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer, 2008. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," BIS Working Papers 267, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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