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Seasonal Cointegration in Macroeconomic Systems: Case Studies for Small and Large European Countries

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  • Kunst, Robert M

Abstract

Stochastic seasonality in vector autoregressions draws attention to seasonal cointegrating vectors. Based upon the assumption of stochastic seasonality, seasonal cointegration is found in a six-dimensional vector autogregression of quarterly macroeconomic series which were not seasonally adjusted. The same experiment is performed on parallel data from four European economies: Austria, Finland, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Univariate and multivariate statistical evidence supports stochastic seasonality in Finland and Germany, whereas deterministic cycles dominate in Austria and the United Kingdom. Eventual correspondences of seasonal structures across countries are also analyzed. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

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  • Kunst, Robert M, 1993. "Seasonal Cointegration in Macroeconomic Systems: Case Studies for Small and Large European Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 325-330, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:75:y:1993:i:2:p:325-30
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    Cited by:

    1. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    2. Fabio Busetti, 2006. "Tests of seasonal integration and cointegration in multivariate unobserved component models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 419-438.
    3. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2002. "Seasonal cointegration and cross-equation restrictions on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 11-46, November.
    4. Ermini, Luigi & Chang, Dongkoo, 1996. "Testing the joint hypothesis of rationality and neutrality under seasonal cointegration: The case of Korea," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 363-386, October.
    5. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    6. Philip Hans Franses & Robert M. Kunst, 1999. "On the Role of Seasonal Intercepts in Seasonal Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 409-433, August.
    7. Lof, Marten & Lyhagen, Johan, 2002. "Forecasting performance of seasonal cointegration models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-44.
    8. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1997. "Forecasting of seasonal cointegrated processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 369-380, September.
    9. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2008. "Testing of seasonal integration and cointegration with fractionally integrated techniques: An application to the Danish labour demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 326-339, March.

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