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An empirical evaluation of China's monetary policies

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  • Fan, Longzhen
  • Yu, Yihong
  • Zhang, Chu
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the responsiveness of the Chinese government's monetary policies in terms of the money supply and interest rates to economic conditions and the effectiveness of these policies in achieving the goals of stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation. We analyze the responsiveness and effectiveness by estimating the Taylor rule, the McCallum rule, and a vector autoregressive model using quarterly data in the period of 1992-2009. The results show that, overall, the monetary policy variables respond to economic growth and the inflation rate, but the magnitudes of the responses are much weaker than those observed in market economies. Money supply responded actively to both the inflation rate and the real output and had certain effects on the future inflation rates and real output. The official interest rates, on the other hand, responded passively to the inflation rate and did not respond to the real output. They do not have any effect on future inflation rates and real output either.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 358-371

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:358-371

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

    Related research

    Keywords: Monetary policy Taylor rule McCallum rule Output gap Inflation rate Real effective exchange rate;

    References

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    1. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    9. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    10. Gabriel Rodriguez, 2001. "Estimation of the Taylor Rule for Canada Under Multiple Structural Changes," Working Papers 0107E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    11. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
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    14. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Crude Oil Prices and Liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," MPRA Paper 44049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A, 2013. "Chinese monetary expansion and the U.S. economy: A note‎," MPRA Paper 46961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Liquidity and Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011," MPRA Paper 48900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "International Monetary Transmission to the Euro Area: Evidence from the US, Japan and China," Working Papers 16436, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 05 Aug 2013.
    5. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," MPRA Paper 48709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    7. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Carton, Benjamin & Gauvin, Ludovic, 2013. "China and global rebalancing: A two-country approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 118-139.
    8. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011," Working Papers 15728, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 17 Dec 2012.
    9. Marjan Petreski & Branimir Jovanovic, 2013. "Monetary Policy in China: The Role of the Qualitative Instruments," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 437-442, November.
    10. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Chinese Monetary Expansion and the US Economy," Working Papers 16874, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 05 Aug 2013.

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